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Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and NBA Playoffs Game 3 Picks for Today, 04/23/26

Target CenterPrime Video
Nuggets
Nuggets
Today
Timberwolves
Timberwolves
WWWWL
Last 5
LWWLW
1-1Record1-1
45-39-0ATS Record40-44-0
51-33O/U Record38-46

Vote on who will win!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick
DEN Nuggets Win(-125)

Arguably the best series of the opening round of the NBA playoffs thus far has been this Western Conference tilt between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. These teams have a well-established rivalry at this point, and we’ve seen the momentum in their matchups go back and forth, often within the same game. This was certainly the case in Game 2, as the Nuggets raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the opening quarter, only for the game to be tied at halftime just 12 minutes later. Minnesota ended up dominating the 4th quarter and stealing home court in this series, but the Timberwolves can’t be counted on to follow up that performance with another consistent effort from start to finish. Furthermore, Denver has struggled mightily in Game 2’s in the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray era, but considering that the Nuggets have been the better team for at more than half of the first 2 games, and their star duo played so poorly in the 4th quarter of Game 2, it’s hard not to look Denver’s way in a bounce-back spot in Game 3.

The Nuggets are certainly not without flaw, but their meltdown in Game 2 was entirely preventable. Defensively, Denver has actually played at a much higher level over the first 2 games than what the popular opinion would lead you to believe. In fact, if you remove the second quarter of Game 2, the Nuggets defense would be a top-5 unit in defensive rating among all playoff teams thus far. Even when factoring in that 39-point period, Denver is still 6th in defensive rating and should be motivated to put forth its best showing of the series following a full 2 days off to rest and recuperate — a significant detail for a team that has a couple of key players nursing a few injuries.

On the other side of the floor, the Nuggets still boast the top offense in the postseason, and Denver is due for a bit of positive regression after shooting just 43% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc over the first 2 games. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a hot shooting game that also saw the Wolves own the glass. Even at home, I wouldn’t expect both of those things to continue on Thursday. Look for Denver to set the tone early and flip the tenor of this series with a pivotal road victory over its hated rival.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction: Denver Nuggets ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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Caleb Wilfinger
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Caleb Wilfinger

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Top Trends
Point Spread

The Timberwolves have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 matchups against Western Conference teams.

Money Line

The Nuggets have won 3 straight road games.

Game Totals

The Over is 37-16-1 in the Nuggets' matchups against Western Conference teams this season.

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