Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 05/03/26

The Raptors survived Game 6 in the most dramatic of ways as RJ Barrett drained a game winning three on a lucky bounce in OT, setting up a winner takes all Game 7 in Cleveland on Sunday. Brandon Ingram decided to skip this one after suffering a heel injury early in Game 6, prompting the trio of Barrett, Barnes and Walter to all score 20+ in the win. We knew from the beginning of this series that home court will play a massive role in the outcome, all 6 wins so far have been by home teams. Going into Sunday’s deciding game, history is not on the side of the Raptors. Road teams have won just 40 of 155 Game 7s in NBA history, however it is worth pointing out that since 2017 we’ve seen a more balanced outcome in these games with each side winning on 7 occasions in 14 games played.

The Cavs have nobody but themselves to blame for that loss on Friday. They fell in love with the three-ball early and could just never get their offense going properly, finishing the game shooting just 11-for-41 from downtown (27%). Despite dominating the battle on the glass 52-38, they were unable to get in front by more than 6 points. A lack of fast break points was also noticeable; Toronto had the upper hand in that area outscoring the Cavs 20-6. Having the home fans cheering them on will be a massive factor for the Cavaliers in Game 7, they are a fairly stable 30-14 SU in 44 home games so far this regular season and playoffs. They’ve also beaten the Raptors 7 times in 9 meetings at  Rocket Arena; entering Sunday the Cavs are riding a 7-game win streak in home games.

These teams have been neck and neck throughout this series, with the last 3 games being decided by just 4, 5 and 2 points respectively. I do not anticipate any team to let off in Game 7, we could have another tight ending coming our way. With James Harden being just 3-4 SU in Game 7s in his career (with 3 losses in a row), I am not 100% sure I trust him to get the job done here. If Cleveland does win, it’ll be by a slim margin, so it makes a lot more sense to back Toronto plus the spread here.

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions: Raptors +8 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.