PropBetGuy
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It’s hard to believe, but we’re more than 20% through the MLB regular season. With April in the rear-view mirror, we now have over five weeks of data on players and teams. Of course, there will be ebbs and flows throughout the season, but such data gives us some reasonable context for our player props. Before we get to these, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks, if you’re looking to bet any game sides or totals.
Barring injuries, most pitchers are six or seven starts into their season, and fully ramped up in terms of pitch count. I’m looking to capitalize on pitchers who have found their groove, especially when strikeout numbers are trending upwards. Tonight, I’m keying in on two players looking to continue on their recent success.
Marcus Stroman (NYM) over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Line available at publishing.
Brought in this season to reinforce the rotation behind ace Jacob Degrom, Stroman has impressed in his first few starts as a Met. Thus far, he’s pitched to a 2.12 ERA, only allowing over two runs in one of his starts. His strikeout rate isn’t great on paper, with only 29 punch-outs in 34 innings. However, almost half of those have come in his last two starts, as he’s effectively incorporated his slider more into his arsenal.
Tonight, at Citi Field, Stroman will face the Orioles. Baltimore comes in as one of the more free-swinging lineups in baseball. As a team, the Orioles chase rate and swing and miss rate rank as the fourth and seventh highest in baseball, respectively. And while Stroman’s whiff and K rates currently rank below average, his chase rate is in the 82nd percentile. The Duke product has been effective at inducing swings on pitches out of the zone, which should make for a plus matchup tonight.
With the Orioles projected to start six or seven right-handed bats tonight, I count at least six plus matchups for Stroman. I expect the Mets right-hander to keep his momentum going, versus the team with the fourth-lowest batting average against righties on the season. Tonight, I have Stroman projected close to seven strikeouts.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)
Line available at publishing.
After being utilized mostly as a relief pitcher the past two seasons, Peralta is proving he’s got the chops to start. Compiling a 3.38 ERA through his first seven appearances (six starts), save for one bad inning in his last outing versus the Phillies, Peralta has been dominant. And, his strikeout numbers are off the charts – 53 in 32 innings. This puts him in the 97th percentile of strikeout rate this season, with his whiff rate also sitting in the 92nd. Using his slider more than ever, he’s generated 21 of his punch-outs with it, in only 47 plate appearances that have ended with the pitch.
The Brewers righty gets St. Louis tonight. While the Cardinals’ overall strikeout numbers are low, they have shown vulnerability versus the elite K pitchers. Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Peralta’s teammate Corbin Burnes all registered at least nine strikeouts versus the Cardinals this season.
In his last start, Peralta allowed the first five baserunners to reach base and score, before registering eight of twelve outs via the K. Pitching at home, I expect him to bounce back tonight versus a Cardinals team who strikeout at the 12th-highest rate in away games.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics.
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