There is only one game on the MLB slate; it is do-or-die for the Atlanta Braves and potentially the last game on the diamond before the American and National League Championship Series begin this weekend. I’ve found a spot of value in this game. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, October 12 for Game 4 of this National League Division Series.
Check out our Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing; recommended 0.75u wager.
The season of Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider has been anticlimactic. After being among the NL Cy Young favorites for several months, his arm became less of a threat down the stretch of the regular season and he only recorded nine-plus strikeouts in two of his last five regular season starts. His two career postseason starts have both come against the Philadelphia Phillies. In last year’s NLDS Game 3, he only managed 2.1 innings pitched and surrendered 5 earned runs and notched four strikeouts. In this year’s NLDS Game 1 just a few days ago, he actually dominated, posting 7.0 innings pitched and allowing just one earned run—but he still only notched 8 strikeouts.
Now, he gets just four days rest in an elimination game against a Phillies lineup that has posted a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 27.8% O-Swing% (third-lowest among all playoff teams). That isn’t best news for a pitcher that relied on a 95th percentile chase rate this season and primarily works with a two-pitch combo of a four-seamer and slider. Philadelphia has posted a 0.93 run value/100 against the four-seamer and a 0.30 run value/100 against the slider, both above average in the playoffs. This hot lineup should get to Strider tonight, and if there is any trouble coming Strider’s way, manager Brian Snitker will not shy away from using his bullpen in an elimination game, especially since Strider’s K-BB% plummets the second time through the order.
This prop is worth the juice as I have him projected for just 6.5 strikeouts and would play the under on this line down to -150.
Don’t miss our Braves-Phillies Same Game Parlay (+552 odds!)
