Best MLB player prop bets for today 7/25: Braves get to Ranger Suarez

Atlanta Braves hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.
Photo of Javan Shouey

Javan Shouey

MLB · 2 weeks ago

Show Bio

A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 13 months, I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the prop(s) I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.

Read our MLB picks on the side and total for EVERY game today

Ranger Suarez (PHI) 4+ hits allowed/Braves ML (-130)

Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I really like this spot today for the Atlanta Braves but am not a fan of the ML price of around -190. A key reason I like Atlanta is that I believe they will have success against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. By adding Ranger to allow 4 or more hits, something he has done in all 16 starts, we can lower the juice to a more palatable price.

Ranger Suarez has a 5.15 home ERA this season with a .282 OBA and a 1.64 WHIP. His 41st percentile xERA and 31st percentile xBA leave a lot to be desired. Suarez also struggles with allowing walks, ranking in the 32nd percentile. He has a below-average first-pitch strike rate and that is worrisome against the powerful Braves lineup.

Atlanta is hitting .278 in the last 30 days against left-handed pitching. During that span they rank 5th in OBP, 12th in OPS, 10th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 117. On the season they are 24-10 when facing a left-handed starter. Adam Duvall is now out with a wrist injury, but this Braves lineup is deep and more than capable of filling in his spot. 19 of the last 25 LHP to face Atlanta have allowed 4 or more hits. Saurez has allowed 6 hits in both games against Atlanta this season.

Max Fried is on the mound for the Braves and is one of my favorite pitchers in the sport. His 2.64 ERA has an 85th percentile xERA to back it up. He has matching 93rd percentiles in terms of barrel rate and walk rate. Fried’s 92nd percentile chase rate is elite, as are his ground ball and weak contact rates. Each one of his pitches has a negative run value and he has allowed fewer than 3 runs in 14/19 starts. His road OBA dips below the Mendoza line and his ERA is better on the road than at home.

The bullpens have each been top 10 over the last 30 days, but Atlanta can expect a longer outing from their starter and I like them to have a lead when Fried exits, setting up their high-leverage arms. The Braves are 18-8 this season as a road favorite while Phillies are just 3-6 as a home underdog. I like Atlanta to improve to 15-5 behind Max Fried.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.