Best MLB player prop bets for today 7/5: Brewers get to Kyle Hendricks

Jun 24, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks (28) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 month ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the prop I am eyeing up on Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) under 17.5 outs (+105)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This is a play I was on when these teams met on June 1, and I am going back to the same spot today. Kyle Hendricks is a pitcher who I’m looking to fade this season as his expected stats are the least encouraging of his pro career. Once a former high ground ball rate pitcher, Hendricks is seeing a career low rate in that department this season, falling 7.6% below league average. His 21st percentile barrel rate is a career worst, as is his 14th percentile xBA.

Hendricks’ heightened fly ball rate and barrel rate are a concern versus a Milwaukee team who ranks 4th highest in fly ball rate. Their team barrel rate sits 7th highest in MLB and they have hit right-handed pitching extremely well over the last 30 days. During that span, Milwaukee sits 6th in OBP, 4th in SLG, 4th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and have a wRC+ of 115 which ranks 6th best. They see the most pitches per plate appearance this season at 4.07.

While Hendricks has increased his chase rate since their last matchup due to an increase in his sinker, changeup, and curveball, and a decrease in his 4-seam usage, this matchup doesn’t worry me too much in that regard. Hendricks’ last two opponents had the 4th and 11th highest chase rates. Milwaukee has the league’s second lowest chase rate this season.

The Brewers have held 17 of the last 25 right-handed starters they have faced under 6 innings of work. Hendricks has been held under this line in 11 of 15 starts this year and 16 of his last 21 dating back to last season. Hendricks has seen Milwaukee 3 times already this season. In those matchups, he is under this line in all 3 while allowing 24 base runners in 14.2 combined innings.

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