Best MLB player prop bets for today 7/7: Joan Adon is no match for Phillies
For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the prop I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
Joan Adon (WSH) 4+ hits allowed/Phillies Moneyline (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Joan Adon is 1-11 with a 6.97 ERA this season. Adon holds a 4th percentile xERA, 12th percentile xBA, 14th percentile xSLG, and a 17th percentile barrel rate. His 1st percentile whiff rate and 5th percentile chase rate have led to a ton of balls in play. As a result, he has a zone contact rate that is 5% higher than average and his chase contact rate is 13.5% higher than average. Adon struggles to throw first pitch strikes and this leads to plenty of hitter-friendly counts.
Adon’s fastball is used 65.4% of the time and is his worst pitch statistically with a -14 run value. The .275 AVG he has allowed on that pitch jumps to .302 when looking at xBA. He also has an xSLG of .596 on that pitch. Adon has allowed 4 or more hits in 10 of 13 starts including 5 or more in each of his last 6 starts. His last start was against this same Phillies team. He allowed 7 hits in 5 IP in a Phillies win. Now Adon jumps on the road where his 8.44 ERA and .309 BA leave a lot to be desired for Washington fans.
Phillies over the last 30 days vs right-handed pitching at home have the 3rd best AVG, 5th best OBP, 4th best SLG, 3rd best OPS, 6th best ISO, 4th best wOBA, and a 124 wRC+. Bailey Falter is not amazing by any means, but he limits walks, and the Phillies bullpen has been much improved as of late. They have won 4 of his last 5 starts. The Nationals are worse against left-handed pitching and 1-12 behind Adon on the mound.
Check out our full game preview for the Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
(0.5U) Joe Musgrove (SDP) to record a win: yes (+160)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The 29-year-old Joe Musgrove has an 8-2 record this season with a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He combines an 86th percentile BB% with a 76th percentile barrel% and 85th percentile xERA. His weak contact rate is nearly double the league rate. While the Padres have lost 2 straight Musgrove starts against the Dodgers and Phillies, they are 11-3 in his starts overall and he draws an easier matchup tonight. Over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching Giants rank 28th in AVG, 25th in SLG, 24th in OPS, and 22nd in wOBA. Joe has pitched 6 or more innings in each start this season while allowing 2 or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 starts.
Logan Webb is a very solid pitcher, but there are some attackable areas in his game. Webb is much worse on the road. His ERA is 1.14 higher on the road this season. He has also allowed all 6 of his home runs away from Oracle Park. Last season he had a road ERA 2.12 higher than his home ERA. Webb has a BB/9 of 1.98 at home but that number balloons to 2.3 on the road this year. Padres have the 4th highest BB% against right-handed pitching during the last 30 days.
Webb is also much worse against left-handed batters with a .280 AVG, .350 OBP, and .812 OPS. He walks left-handers at a 5.1% higher rate as well. Padres have stuffed the lineup with 6 left-handed bats. This is a lineup that has done very well vs right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span, San Diego ranks 2nd in OBP, 9th in SLG, 6th in wOBA, and they have a wRC+ of 117.
In terms of bullpens, the Padres have the clear advantage in that department. Giants rank 8th worst in ERA, 9th worst in WHIP, and have the league’s 3rd worst bullpen AVG. Padres, on the other hand, have the 10th best AVG, have the best WHIP with the lowest number of walks allowed, and have the 12th best bullpen ERA. Giants have also taxed their high-leverage arms from the bullpen in the last series while Padres had yesterday off.