Javan Shouey
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For the last 12 months, I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging. Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Wednesday’s MLB slate.
After going 12-4 on sides yesterday, get our MLB picks for all of today’s games!
Tyler Anderson (LAD) 4+ strikeouts/Dodgers ML (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
Tyler Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers pitching staff this season. He has posted a 7-0 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Dodgers are 8-3 in Anderson’s starts this year and his expected stats show that his success has been no fluke.
Anderson holds an elite 94th percentile BB% to pair with his 98th percentile chase rate. He gets ahead in counts early and often with a 69.4% first-pitch strike rate. Once ahead in the count, Anderson uses his deadly changeup which has a 43.8% Whiff% and 27% Put Away% this year. His changeup has a -10 run value this season ranking it among the best individual pitches of anyone in baseball. When he does get hit, it isn’t very hard as he ranks 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 90th percentile in average exit velocity. His ERA seems sustainable as his xERA sits 74th percentile. Anderson has 4+ Ks in 9/11 starts this season and averages just 15.5 pitches/K.
Angels have been unimpressive as of late, losing 17/19 games. Their offense has allowed 12/16 LHP to reach 4 or more Ks and despite returning the core of their lineup last night, they got shut out in game one of this series. They have the 7th highest K% vs LHP on the year and 5th highest Whiff% overall.
Detmers for the Angels has been up and down this year but his expected data leaves a lot to be desired. Just 13th percentile in K% and his xSLG is 36th percentile. Has 11 walks to 16 Ks in his last 6 starts and has allowed 2+ home runs in 3 separate games so far. Last 30 days vs LHP the Dodgers rank 4th in BB%, with the 7th best SLG, and 10th best ISO. Dodgers have the bullpen advantage and I like their chances to win their 11th game vs the Angels in their last 14 matchups.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Eric Fedde (WAS) 4+ hits allowed/Braves ML (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Atlanta has won 13 straight games by a combined score of 93-39. During this span, 12/13 starting pitchers have allowed 4+ hits vs them, with an average total of 6.46 hits allowed by the starters. 23 of the last 25 starting pitchers overall to face the Braves have allowed 4+ hits, with 21 of them allowing 5 or more. When looking specifically at right-handed starters, 22 of the last 25 have allowed 4 or more hits.
Braves have hit .264 with a .481 SLG, and .218 ISO vs RHP in the last 30 days. Eric Fedde is an absolute mess. The 29-year-old righty for the Nationals is in the midst of another disappointing season with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. His xERA and xBA sit 32nd and 30th percentiles respectively, and he doesn’t draw batters out of the zone with a remarkably low 2nd percentile chase rate. He has 90 career PA vs active Braves and has been rocked with a .397 AVG and .385 xBA. Fedde has allowed 4 or more hits in 10/12 games this year and 32/41 games the last two seasons including 5 or more hits allowed in all 4 starts vs Atlanta.
Spencer Strider and his absolutely beautiful advanced metrics will be on the mound for the Braves tonight. Strider ranks 99th percentile in K% and 94th percentile in xBA. The absolutely only quarrel with his game is his walk rate but Washington isn’t a big walk team and they see the 2nd fewest pitches/PA in the league. Braves main bullpen arms are rested after wins of 6 and 4 runs the last two nights. Nationals bullpen is 6th worst in ERA and 8th worst in WHIP this season.
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