Best MLB player prop bets for today 6/16: Musgrove quiets the Cubs

Jun 3, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) reacts after striking out Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Jace Peterson (not pictured) in the seventh inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Photo of Javan Shouey

Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 week ago

Show Bio

A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in.  I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.  Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.

Read our picks and predictions for EVERY MLB game today

Joe Musgrove (SD) to record a win: yes (+115)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Joe Musgrove is in the midst of a career season. The legitimate all-star starter and early-season Cy Young candidate has some of the most impressive advanced metrics you will find. His 1.50 ERA is 2nd-best in baseball, and is supported by his 91st percentile xERA. His barrel% is 87th percentile and his average exit velocity is 90th percentile so he isn’t being hit hard. He also isn’t allowing free base runners with just a 5.7% BB%. Musgrove has a WHIP of 0.93 which sits 7th best in baseball.

Weather is a massive part of today’s game. There are strong hitting conditions with hot temperatures and wind blowing out, but Musgrove has the clear pitching advantage over Matt Swarmer, especially factoring in the conditions.  Musgrove is a ground ball pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. He has a fly ball rate that is 3.3% below league average which pairs nicely with his low barrel rate.  Swarmer has only thrown 268 major league pitches but has a 16% barrel rate (9.3% higher than league average) and his fly ball rate is 15.1% higher than league average.

To record a win, Musgrove needs 5+ innings of work and to leave the game with a lead that isn’t squandered. He has thrown 6+ innings of work in each start this season while 2 or fewer runs in all of them. He is 7-0 on the season in the W/L department and San Diego is 10-1 in his starts. Strong bullpen advantage for the Padres and the Cubs have only received more than 5 innings from their starter in 1 of the last 7 games. Musgrove has allowed 4 home runs all season in 1060 pitches. Swarmer has allowed 9 in 268 pitches including 6 in his last start alone. I love this play at plus money.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Zack Wheeler (PHI) 5+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I find it funny how trends build in baseball. A struggling or successful bat can prove contagious for the whole lineup and the same can be said for relievers. I love when two trends align such as today.

Washington has lost 11 of their last 16 contests including getting swept in their last series by a combined margin of 27-11 vs the Braves. While Atlanta is hot, so are the Phillies. Philadelphia has won 11/13 games in the month of June including an electric walk-off win last night.

Nationals are just 3-10 in Patrick Corbin starts and now face Philadelphia who mashes LHP. Corbin has been dismal since signing his new deal and is having a career-worst season. 7th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, while ranking 20th percentile or worse in barrel%, hard-hit%, and average exit velocity. He doesn’t draw chases or whiffs and is prone to walk batters. Phillies rank 6th best in BB%, 5th in SLG, 4th in OPS, and 4th in ISO vs LHP this season. Overall in June they have a 142 wRC+ and .237 ISO.

I love that Zack Wheeler has gone 6 or more innings in 34/43 starts the last two seasons including 7 of his last 8. He should go longer into the game than Corbin and perform better given his elite expected data. Wheeler has racked up 5 or more Ks in 38/43 starts the last two years including 7 or more in each of his last 8 starts. While Washington isn’t a prime K target, rookie Spencer Strider had 11 Ks last night and 7 of the last 11 RHP have 5+ Ks vs the Nationals. Wheeler averages just 12.97 pitches/K and has thrown 97+ pitches in 5 straight starts.

While neither bullpen is very good, Phillies have seen 21 IP from their last 3 starters so their bullpen should be relatively rested. I look for the Phillies to win their 8th straight game vs their divisional foe tonight.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$200

Bet $5, Win $200 In Free Bets!

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any sport, any market

Win $200 in free bets regardless if your bet wins or loses

Must be 21 years or over to participate. Reward paid in site credit. Offer valid for new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

PointsBet

$100

Bet $100 Risk-Free on every NBA Finals Game

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Each NBA Finals game, your first Fixed Odds bet on the game will be Risk-Free up to $100

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.