Best MLB player prop bets for today 6/19: Yankees sweep Toronto

Jun 10, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino (40) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 week ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in.  I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.  Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Sunday’s MLB slate.

Luis Severino (NYY) 5+ strikeouts/Yankees ML (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Luis Severino has been fantastic for the Yankees this season. The 28-year-old righty has pitched an impressive 2.80 ERA (his 2.55 xBA is 91st percentile), with a 1.03 WHIP on the year. Severino has thrown 7 straight starts with at least 90 pitches, including 103 in 2 of his last 3 starts. This is good to see as his pitches per K sits at only 13.94.

Severino has recorded 5 or more Ks in 8 of 10 starts this season, including 38 over his last 5 starts combined. He has a swinging strike rate in the 86th percentile, with a 79th percentile whiff rate and 83rd percentile K%. He has faced this Toronto lineup twice this year, exceeding this number both times, and his normal K prop line today sits at 6.5. In 90 career PA vs active Blue Jays, Severino has a 35.6% K rate while allowing just a .159 BA.

Yusei Kikuchi has been horrendous as of late for Toronto. His last 2 starts have combined to last 4.2 IP while allowing 7 hits, 8 walks, and 7 earned runs. He has a 1st percentile barrel rate and 4th percentile walk rate. Most of his other percentiles are single digits as well. Now he faces a Yankees lineup for already his 4th time this year. He has a .304 career avg allowed to this Yankees active roster and a .428 xwOBA to go with it. This Yankees team is no joke, having rattled off wins in 16 of 17 games. They have hit LHP very well in the last 30 days power-wise and now return Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu to the lineup. The Yankees’ bullpen has the clear advantage when it comes down the wire, and I love the price we get on this play.

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