Best MLB player prop bets for today 6/23: Backing Wright at home
For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the prop I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
Kyle Wright (ATL) over 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Kyle Wright is over this line in 9 of 13 starts, including 6 of 8 at home this season. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in called strike plus whiff rate, 72nd percentile in swinging strike rate and 79th percentile in K%. While slightly below average in chase rate, his chase contact rate sits 10.7% better than league average. The Giants have the 7th-worst chase contact rate.
Wright throws 66% first-pitch strikes and works in the zone 4.3% higher than the league average. The Giants take the 4th-most first pitches as a team and they take the 8th-most pitches in the zone overall with the league’s 5th-worst zone contact rate when swinging. San Francisco has the 5th-highest K% vs RHP over the last 30 days, including 11 Ks by Charlie Morton the last time out.
The Braves’ right-hander is averaging just 13.53 pitches per K with a K-per-IP of 1.10 this season. He has gone 6+ innings in 10 of 13 starts, including each of his last five starts. I am a believer in the former 5th overall pick and I love backing him at home, where he has a 1.13 K-per-IP and a .181 OBA this season.
Joe Musgrove (SD) to record a win: yes (+165)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is too much value to pass up on in my eyes. Joe Musgrove has been nothing short of incredible this season for the Padres. His 1.59 ERA ranks 2nd in baseball and his success is likely sustainable looking at his 92nd percentile xERA. His 0.92 WHIP ranks 6th best and is backed by his 82nd percentile BB%, 92nd percentile xwOBA, 89th percentile xSLG, and 78th percentile xBA. Musgrove has done a fantastic job limiting hard contact ranking 68th percentile in hard-hit rate, 85th percentile in barrel rate, and 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. His weak contact rate is more than double league average and has led to a high ground ball rate as well.
Joe utilizes a 6-pitch arsenal with 4 of them being thrown at least 17% of the time. 5 of his pitches have above average vertical movement which keeps batters off balance. Musgrove is a quality start machine having thrown at least 6 innings in each start, and he has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs. This has led to an 8-0 record and the Padres are 11-1 in his starts. Phillies are middle to bottom of the pack in most rankings vs RHP during the last 30 days. They are also on the 8th game on an 11 game road trip, having lost their last 3 games by a combined 20-5 score vs Washington and Texas.
Ranger Saurez and his 1.51 WHIP will take the mound for the Phillies. His xERA is 39th percentile and his xBA is 29th percentile. He struggles to strikeout batters with regularity, and his walk rate and K rate have matching 25th percentiles. Padres are missing Manny Machado which is unfortunate for their lineup, but they are still batting .262 vs LHP over the last 30 days. With a total of 7 and Musgrove on the mound, the offense shouldn’t need too many runs for a win. Padres bullpen has the advantage in ERA, WHIP, and Philadelphia didn’t receive a quality outing last night from Zack Wheeler for the first time in over a month. I love this price for Musgrove to record his 9th win of the season and bolster his Cy Young candidacy.