Best MLB player prop bets for today 6/7: Tarik Skubal sits down the Pirates

May 20, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) delivers a pitch in the third inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 3 weeks ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in.  I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.  Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Tarik Skubal (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts (-118)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Tarik Skubal has been a bright spot for the Tigers this season to the tune of a 2.15 ERA (2.68 xERA), a 0.95 WHIP, and he has gone at least 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts.  He does a fantastic job at limiting free base-runners, having walked just 4.4% of the batters he has faced (90th percentile).  His xBA, xSLG, xERA, xwOBA and barrel rate all sit at the 64th percentile or better.

Skubal has great strikeout stuff with his 75th-percentile K% and 67th percentile chase rate. His K/IP sits at 1.04, and he records a strikeout every 14.72 pitches thrown.  Skubal has thrown 90 or more pitches in 7 of his last 10 starts, and 100+ in his last 3 full starts (he left his first start against Cleveland due to injury.

Pittsburgh started off the season as a team that was tough for left-handed pitchers to strike out, but that has quickly changed.  Since May 1, the Pirates have the league’s third-highest K% against LHP at 25.3%, combined with the 3rd-lowest BB%, the 5th-worst batting average and the 10th-worst wRC+. On the year they have the 6th-worst chase contact rate, and their lineup doesn’t possess a ton of power. Of the last 11 left-handed pitchers to face Pittsburgh, 6 have recorded at least 6 strikeouts, including 3 of the last 4. Expect Skubal to have another strong game today.

Kyle Wright (ATL) 5+ strikeouts / Braves Moneyline (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Kyle Wright, the former 5th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, has finally asserted himself as a mainstay in the Braves rotation. Through 10 starts this season, Wright has pitched exceptionally well with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 1.11 K/IP. He averages just 13.82 pitches per strikeout recorded, and he has thrown 90+ pitches in 7/10 starts (101 last start).

Wright has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 8/10 starts this season. Today he draws a very favorable matchup on paper versus the Athletics and their 24.4% strikeout rate vs RHP. 9 of the last 10 righty starters to face Oakland have thrown at least 5 strikeouts. The A’s have the 8th highest whiff rate as a team, and Wright ranks in the 69th percentile for whiff rate. My only worry for Wright is if he allows too many walks since he ranks in the 35th percentile for BB%, but Oakland has the 5th lowest BB% versus RHP this season.

Braves hit LHP very well as they rank in the top 7 in AVG, OBP, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ throughout the season. Atlanta has won 13/19 games against a left-handed starting pitcher and now get Cole Irvin who ranks in the bottom 20th percentiles nearly across the board. Irvin has a .282 batting average allowed and a 5.09 ERA while on the road. The Braves have won 5 in a row and 9 of their last 13 contests while Oakland has lost 6 games in a row and 16 of their last 21 overall.

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