Best MLB player prop bets today 7/1: Jose Berrios dominates again in Toronto

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Target Field.
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JutPicks

MLB · 1 month ago

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NBA and MLB props specialist for Pickswise.

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 106 wins and 81 losses for a gain of +19 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Friday.

Jose Berrios (TOR) over 16.5 outs (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Looking at Jose Berrios splits this season is special. On the road, he may be the worst pitcher in all of baseball this season. His ERA is 7.92 and he’s failed to go 5 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts away from Toronto. Luckily for us, he’ll be pitching at home versus one of the worst hitting teams against right-handed pitching.

Berrios’ dominance at home goes back to last season when he was traded from the Minnesota Twins to the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s over this line in 20 of 23 starts for an 87% clip. This season, he’s registered 5 straight home starts over this number including games against the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins. His opponent today will be the Tampa Bay Rays, who in the last 2 weeks of June were hitting .215 and an on-base percentage that ranked in the bottom 10 against right-handed pitching.

I expect Berrios to get ahead in plenty of counts and finish them off with a strikeout. In his last 2 home starts, he’s struck out 22 batters in 14 innings. Once he finds that groove, it should be easy going for the 2x all-star.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

Marco Gonzales (SEA) under 2.5 earned runs (-120)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I tend to stay away from pitchers who have faced a team multiple times in a short amount of time, but against a team like the Oakland Athletics, this is almost a must-bet spot.

The Athletics cannot hit left-handed pitching. In the month of June, they hit .196 in 237 plate appearances. In 8 starts versus left-handed pitchers in the month of June, they were held under this line in 6 of them including Gonzales going 7 innings and allowing 2 runs.

This will be the 3rd time Gonzales will face off against the Athletics. The A’s have struggled when facing a pitcher more than once this season. Martin Perez, Patrick Sandoval, Robbie Ray and Marcos Gonzales all stayed under this number the 2nd time they faced the Athletics.

With their recent struggles and Gonzales knowing this lineup, I have him staying under this number for the 7th time at home this season.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners

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