Best MLB player prop bet today 9/10: Pablo Lopez struggles against division rival

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at loanDepot Park.
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 185 wins and 135 losses for a gain of +32 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Saturday.

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Pablo Lopez (MIA) over 4.5 hits allowed (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Pablo Lopez has taken a small step back after a sensational 2021 campaign. His ERA is upwards of 3.60 this season, and he’s allowing .87 hits per inning pitched.

Tonight he will face the New York Mets, which will not be easy. This will be the 4th time Lopez has pitched against the Mets this season, and that usually gives the advantage to the hitters. In the previous 3 starts, he’s allowed 24 hits in 13 innings pitched. As a team, the Mets are hitting .266 against right-handed pitching in the last month, the 4th highest during that span. They have a daunting lineup from top to bottom that consistently puts the ball in play.

Lopez has allowed at least 5 hits in 6 of 9 games since the All-Star Break, including 12 to the Mets in late July. Lopez has faced off against some of the best competition in baseball recently and that continues tonight at home against the top-seeded Wild Card team.

Be sure to check out our New York Mets vs Miami Marlins predictions

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