Best MLB player prop bets today 8/16: It's always Sonny in Minnesota

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 162 wins and 118 losses for a gain of +30.83 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Tuesday.

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Sonny Gray (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs (-135)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

We have been big proponents of fading the Kansas City Royals against right-handed starters. Unfortunately, last night, we backed Jon Ryan, and his hits allowed prop that lost in his last inning of work. Tonight, we go right back to a Twins’ righty in Sonny Gray.

We’ve seen Gray have his pitch count limited in plenty of starts this season. No matter how well he is pitching, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli will pull Gray around the 6th inning mark and 80 pitches. Both statistics play in our favor. In Gray’s last 5 starts, he pitched against some of the best hitting teams in the league. He’s held the San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays to a combined 1 run in 10 innings. In his last start against the world series favorites, Los Angeles Dodgers, Gray allowed 3 runs and 6 hits in only 4.2 innings of work.

Gray dominated this same Royals team back in May where he allowed 1 run in 6 innings of work. The Royals have failed to register at least 3 earned runs on a right-handed starter in 4 straight games which consist of over 24 innings.

Gray is under this line in 9 of 14 starts where he throws at least 70 pitches and should be able to breeze through this Royals lineup

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals

Justin Verlander (HOU) under 2.5 earned runs (-135)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

It is going to be a show in Chicago tonight. Two of the best pitchers in Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease will be dueling off. Verlander is currently the betting favorite to win the AL CY Young award at -135, but Cease is not far off at +165 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Tonight, we put all our chips towards Verlander and his earned runs prop.

This number is set at 2.5 for good reason. The White Sox are one of the league’s top-hitting teams against right-handed pitching and have gotten to Verlander already this season. So why are we attacking this prop? Well, Verlander tends to pitch extremely well when seeing a team multiple teams this season. He has faced the Seattle Mariners 5 times this season and stayed under this total in 4 of 5 starts. In 3 starts against the Texas Rangers, Verlander has pitched 19 innings and allowed 4 runs. Simply put, Verlander tends to put on a clinic and shows why he is one of the best pitchers the game has ever seen.

The White Sox have struggled to produce runs in 4 of their 5 games versus righties. Jose Urquidy went 7.2 innings and allowed 1 run. Veteran Zack Greinke diced up the White Sox last week in 6 innings of work. He did allow 9 hits but stranded all runners for 0 runs allowed.

Verlander is under this line in 16 of 21 starts and has the best ERA in the league at 1.85. I expect Verlander to showcase why he deserves to win his 3rd AL CY Young award.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox

Charlie Morton over 4.5 hits allowed (-145)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves will face off against division rival New York Mets. Morton is more than familiar with this high-powered Mets offense. In two starts versus them, Morton has allowed 12 hits in 10.2 innings pitched.

The New York Mets are an opponent that right-handed starters lose sleep over. In the last 30 days, the Mets are hitting .275 with an on-base percentage of .348: ranking in the top 5 in both categories during that span. In August alone, they have faced 11 right-handed starters including some of the best pitchers in all of baseball. In those 11 games, the Mets have registered at least 5 hits in 8 of those games.

Morton does have great splits at home, but this prop should be set at 5.5. Morton has allowed at least 5 hits in half of his starts which all have come against the game’s best hitting teams. The Mets have gotten to Morton twice for 6 hits in each game, the Philadelphia Phillies registered 22 hits in 3 games, and both the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers crushed this prop for 15 hits combined.

Wind will be blowing out in Atlanta, and we should see balls fly out with this loaded Mets offense.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies over 4 runs First 5 Innings (-115)

Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Two of the best hitting teams versus left-handed pitching square off tonight. Now, we don’t get the luxury of this game being played at Coors Field, but Busch Stadium will have to do.

Both Kyle Freeland and Jose Quintana faced off on August 10th and combined to allow 8 runs in the first 5 runs. This prop hit in the 1st inning as Kyle Freeland allowed 5 runs himself. We don’t expect the same showing from these 2 southpaws but 4 runs in a gift where these two teams rank in baseball against left-handed pitching.

On the season, the Rockies lead all of baseball against left-handed pitching with an average of .282 and slugging at the 5th highest rate. On the other side of the diamond, the Cardinals rank 2nd in slugging and 3rd in batting average.

The middle of both these teams’ batting orders is lethal. The Cardinals alone with all-stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado create chaos and give 5- and 6-hole hitters Albert Pujols and Paul DeJong plenty to work with.

I would play this prop up to 4.5 at plus odds, but prefer 4 as the total could push.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies

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