Best MLB player prop bets today 9/27: Mitch Keller holds off the young Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller (23) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium.
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 210 wins and 149 losses for a gain of +39.21 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for Tuesday.

Lock in our MLB picks for each of today’s 15 games

Mitch Keller (PIT) over 17.5 outs (-125)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Mitch Keller has shown promise for a 26-year-old this season. Keller has played himself into a starting role next season in the young Pittsburgh Pirates rotation. He’s had a career year with a 3.99 ERA and thrown his most innings at 149. Tonight, he’ll face off against a Cincinnati Reds team that he has battled twice this season and struggled mightily. The good news for us is that this Reds lineup will look drastically different than it did in May.

Keller has shined in all 4 starts in September. He’s allowed 5 earned runs in 25 innings pitched with an opponent’s batting average below.195; his lowest for a month all season. He’s averaging over 95 pitches in his last 5 starts and has gone at least 6 innings in all of them. His opponents included the New York Mets twice and the St. Louis Cardinals, two of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitching.

The Reds hit a plateau in September against right-handed pitching. They’re hitting a league-low .209 with a bottom-five on-base and slugging percentage. Expect a ton of groundball and flyouts for Keller as the Reds see the 12th-fewest pitches per at-bat this season.

Be sure to check out our Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions

Jose Berrios (TOR) over 2.5 earned runs (-115)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Jose Berrios may go down as one of the most disappointing players in the 2022 season. The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Berrios back in 2021 from the Minnesota Twins to be the top arm in their rotation alongside Kevin Gausman and Alex Manoah. That has not been the case at all. He has an ERA of 5.27 and is looked at as the Jays’ 4th-best starter behind Ross Stripling. He’s going to be in for a rude awakening tonight against the high-powered New York Yankees who are sitting atop the AL East with a record of 94-59.

The top of the lineup for the Yankees has feasted off Berrios in their careers. AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge is 6 of 18 off Berrios and 2-hole hitter Anthony Rizzo is 7 of 19 with two homers. The Yankees got to Kevin Gausman early last night as they had runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the top of the 1st inning but only got one run across.

Berrios is seemingly better at home, but the Yankees are crushing righties in September. They’re hitting .256 and have registered at least 3 runs on a right-handed starter in 9 of 18 games in September. Berrios is over this line in 5 of his last 10 home starts and 2 of 3 games against the Yankees this season.

Be sure to check out our New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions

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