Best MLB player prop bets for today 8/6: Happy Patrick Corbin day

Philadelphia Phillies hitter Kyle Schwarber
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Javan Shouey

MLB · 1 week ago

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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me.

For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.

Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Saturday’s MLB slate.

Catch our MLB picks for ALL of today’s 17-game slate

Phillies first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing, playable to -130.
Also good with Phillies full game team total.

Patrick Corbin is someone worth targeting in most scenarios, but today seems like a perfect storm. The highly paid left-handed pitcher from the Nationals is in the midst of a career-worst season. Corbin has posted a 6.57 ERA this season that is backed by an xERA ranking 3rd percentile. He allows a ton of base hits with 156 hits allowed in 109.2 IP. His xBA sits in just the 3rd percentile with a 4th percentile xSLG. The lefty not only gets hit often, but he gets hit very hard. Corbin ranks just 9th percentile in average exit velocity, 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 15th percentile in barrel rate. His overall 1.77 WHIP jumps to 2.00 when on the road. He also sports a road ERA of 8.43 with an OBA of .367 in 47 IP.

Corbin has allowed 3 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts. In those starts, he has gone past 5 IP just once, tallying a combined 21 IP. In those 21 innings, Corbin has posted a 2.19 WHIP with 25 runs allowed and 5 home runs. Corbin has allowed 3 or more runs in the first 5 innings in 12 of his last 15 starts. This includes a game against these Phillies where Corbin surrendered 9 runs (only 2 earned) on 8 hits in 3.1 IP. Today, Corbin has his outs line set at 15.5 with heavy juice to the under, and his earned runs are at 3.5. Getting a reasonable price on a 2.5 number for the Phillies that includes unearned runs is something I am happy about.

Philadelphia hasn’t hit left-handed pitching as well as their season-long numbers during the last 30 days but is still a potent offense. The lineup is filled with power bats and guys that are willing to walk. The hitting conditions today in Philadelphia are also pristine. Citizens Bank Park is expected to see the highest increase in home runs and overall run-scoring production from any park today. Winds are expected to be blowing out at more than 10 MPH and temperatures should reach 90 degrees by first pitch.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

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