NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +30.7 units of profit, from 119 winning picks so far this season is the proof.

Our NFL picks this week include against the spread picks for every game in week 8, highlighted by Chargers vs Vikings on Thursday night football, Steelers vs Packers on SNF and Monday Night football, featuring Chiefs vs Commanders.

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Commanders

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Point Spread Pick

KC Chiefs -10.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Washington Commanders, who are suffering through a few key injuries, are really going through a tough time right now. Against the Cowboys, things took a turn for the worst when star quarterback Jayden Daniels went down with a hamstring injury. Considering that Daniels already missed time this season and the franchise can’t afford to lose the former LSU quarterback long-term, trusted medical professionals project Daniels will sit at least 2-3 weeks. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Commanders, who will start Marcus Mariota in Week 8, since they have a road spot against one of (if not the) best teams in the NFL on Monday night. The Chiefs started off 2025 in rocky fashion, but they are quickly becoming the same program that’s made 3 straight Super Bowls. In some ways, they look even better than those teams.

Week after week, important Chiefs’ players have returned from injury or suspension, and each week it’s meant better results from Mahomes and his teammates. In Week 7 it was Rashee Rice who returned, further aiding a Kansas City roster that’s already reaching its apex less than halfway through the season. In one of the most disparate box scores you’ll ever see, the Chiefs out-gained the Raiders 434-95 in total yards and, get ready for it, 30-3 in first downs. Of course the Raiders are a complete dumpster-fire and it was hardly a surprise to see a dominant Chiefs’ win, but it was akin to a Super Bowl outfit against a college team. We just don’t see it very often in the modern NFL.

The Commanders are far better than the Raiders overall, but in their current predicament we’re not sure if it’s enough to cover this line. In 2 starts, Mariota has been a decent back-up for Daniels (363 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But last week, against a motivated Dallas-defense, he instantly proved why he’s a huge step down from #5, throwing a hellacious interception and unable to move the offense in Daniels’ absence. Aside from left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s dealing with something mysterious that’s keeping him off the field (Andy Reid has yet to expand on what’s happening), the Chiefs are completely healthy, at home, and look as potent and buttoned up as they ever have. The choice is clear.

Commanders vs Chiefs prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 48.5(-110)

Reasoning

Although Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will always get more flowers, what their defense has done the last two weeks may be the most impressive. At home against the Lions in Week 6, an offense that’s typically a juggernaut against any opponent, Kansas City held Jared Goff and company to just 297 total yards and 18 first downs. Last week the Raiders never had a chance, earning an unbelievably low 3.2 yards per play and just 3 total first downs for the entirety of the contest. Las Vegas also went 0-7 on third down and didn’t reach the red-zone once. At home, the Kansas City defense is clearly at its best. Even if we take away a scoreless showing from the Raiders, Kansas City is holding opponents to just 21 points per game at Arrowhead.

Of course, teams that scored more against KC were led by significantly better offenses. Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts both found some success in Weeks 1 and 2, even though the Eagles only gained 216 yards. The Commanders are in a very vulnerable position, one that simply cannot mimic what LAC or Philadelphia brought to the table.

On the other side, the Commanders have a respectable defense that ranks 18th overall on Pro Football Focus and permits 24.3 points per game (21st). In general they are good, not great, but head coach Dan Quinn was brought to Washington because of his defensive acumen and leadership. Against a Kansas City offense that’s humming, Quinn knows that their only chance to win is an A+ performance on the defensive side of the ball. Since we don’t anticipate much from Washington on offense, there’s only one way we can look.

Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Player Receptions Pick

D. Samuel (WAS) - Over 4.5 recs(+102)

Reasoning

I’m going back to Deebo Samuel after falling short with him 2 weeks ago in primetime. It may seem counterintuitive, but I believe McLaurin’s return benefits Samuel greatly in the passing game, giving him less attention from the safety position. In Mariota’s 2 starts this season, Deebo saw 9 targets for 8 receptions. The negative game script (-11.5) would lend itself to more shell coverages in the second half, allowing Deebo to operate underneath for dink-and-dunk completions. Samuel is over this line in 2 of 3 games this season with McLaurin and should be “full go” according to Jay Glazer.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

I. Pacheco (KC) to score a TD(+200)

Reasoning

The Chiefs’ running game has been an afterthought all season, and for good reason. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have failed to make teams respect them after 7 matchups in the run game, while rookie Brashard Smith has given them some life through the air out of the backfield. Nonetheless, with the offense at full strength and an implied team total of nearly 30 points, I’m willing to take a shot at Pacheco to score a TD at +200 odds — especially after 2 solid outings and finding the end zone in their last game against the Raiders.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Croskey-Merritt (WAS) to score a TD(+200)

Reasoning

We’re grasping at straws, picking Commanders skill players to find the end zone. The good news is that Washington will have Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back. Yet, Marcus Mariota leading the charge doesn’t help their cause. So, we’ll pivot to the run game — even in a presumed negative game script as double-digit underdogs on the road. Zach Ertz doesn’t catch my eye with Mariota under center, along with the rest of the pass catchers for Washington. Look for the Commanders to play through Jacory Croskey-Merritt to somewhat control this presumed slaughtering. At +200 odds, there looks to be great value with Washington’s lead back.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Why Trust our NFL Picks

Through the first seven weeks of the 2025 season our record speaks for itself. Our team of handicappers have racked up 63 winning NFL against the spread and moneyline picks (and 1 push), for +29.1 units of profit. On top of that, our NFL over/under picks have landed on 56 games, for a profit of +1.6 units. When you combine the two, our expert NFL picks have scored +30.7 units of profit so far this season.

Pick	Wins	Profit (betting units)
Sides (ATS & Moneyline)	63	+29.1
Over/Under	56	+1.6
Total	119	+30.7

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

More Than Just NFL Football Picks

We also specialize in every major North American sport including the MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, and College Basketball. Check out our site every day for some of the best bets in every major athletic contest and make sure to follow us on social media as well.

Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

Where Is The Best Place To Get NFL Picks?

Pickswise is the best place to get free expert NFL picks. We have the best cappers and NFL picks on the market and you can get all of our NFL picks for free! every week.

Each pick is meticulously researched by an experienced NFL handicapper, using our own data, custom-built models, and analytical methods. Our profit this season is 26 units and rising, so don’t miss out on the best NFL picks this week.