Best player prop for Saturday's MLB slate: Mills to whiff D-Backs

Alec Mills MLB player prop
Photo of John Hyslop

John Hyslop

MLB

Show Bio

You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

Alright so I’m on a MLB player prop heater. That’s what it’s called when you are just mowing down MLB player prop bets. When you’re on a heater, you have to keep betting. It’s kind of like on NBA Jam back in the day. When a guy was on fire, you wouldn’t let someone else take a shot. That would be dumb. This is basically the same thing only better. As a rule of thumb, when I’m on a heater, I like to attack the very first game on the slate. It makes me feel good and I like to feel good. The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are squaring off at 2:20pm ET on MLB Network so that’s where I’m heading.

On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. There is also a Diamondbacks-Cubs same game parlay at +991 odds with a variation of the bet you are about to look at. Also, bets can be added to the card (especially today), so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? It just makes sense.

Alec Mills over 4.5 strikeouts (+148)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Now I didn’t want to take this MLB player prop since it’s in a same game parlay I have already advised but I have to do it. It’s early enough in the day that we can always pivot if things go south so there is that. DraftKings and BetMGM has Mills at 3.5 (-150 at DraftKings and -135 at BetMGM) but I will go with 4.5 +148 at FanDuel.

Since the All-Star break Mills has thrown at least 81 pitches in each start. Two of those starts saw him go 90-plus. In each of those starts Mills has struck out at least five guys. He fanned nine Cincinnati Reds, so he does have a decent ceiling.

The Diamondbacks flat out can’t hit. That’s just a fact. On the road, they are second-worst in MLB in OPS only to the Colorado Rockies who are a historically bad road team. They strike out 27% of the time away from home and Zach Davies fanned eight of them yesterday, which is crazy.

The only thing I don’t love is the fact that Merrill Kelly is pitching for the Diamondbacks. He strikes out enough (17 times in 42 plate appearances) but he isn’t a complete pushover. They like to let him bunt, which I hate because it ruins a perfectly good strikeout. Kelly has whiffed at least once in his last three games so we do have hope. I think this is a great MLB player prop bet.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply