Best player prop for Saturday's MLB slate: Mills to whiff D-Backs

Alec Mills MLB player prop
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John Hyslop

MLB· 2 months ago

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You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

Alright so I’m on a MLB player prop heater. That’s what it’s called when you are just mowing down MLB player prop bets. When you’re on a heater, you have to keep betting. It’s kind of like on NBA Jam back in the day. When a guy was on fire, you wouldn’t let someone else take a shot. That would be dumb. This is basically the same thing only better. As a rule of thumb, when I’m on a heater, I like to attack the very first game on the slate. It makes me feel good and I like to feel good. The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are squaring off at 2:20pm ET on MLB Network so that’s where I’m heading.

On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. There is also a Diamondbacks-Cubs same game parlay at +991 odds with a variation of the bet you are about to look at. Also, bets can be added to the card (especially today), so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? It just makes sense.

Alec Mills over 4.5 strikeouts (+148)

Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Now I didn’t want to take this MLB player prop since it’s in a same game parlay I have already advised but I have to do it. It’s early enough in the day that we can always pivot if things go south so there is that. DraftKings and BetMGM has Mills at 3.5 (-150 at DraftKings and -135 at BetMGM) but I will go with 4.5 +148 at FanDuel.

Since the All-Star break Mills has thrown at least 81 pitches in each start. Two of those starts saw him go 90-plus. In each of those starts Mills has struck out at least five guys. He fanned nine Cincinnati Reds, so he does have a decent ceiling.

The Diamondbacks flat out can’t hit. That’s just a fact. On the road, they are second-worst in MLB in OPS only to the Colorado Rockies who are a historically bad road team. They strike out 27% of the time away from home and Zach Davies fanned eight of them yesterday, which is crazy.

The only thing I don’t love is the fact that Merrill Kelly is pitching for the Diamondbacks. He strikes out enough (17 times in 42 plate appearances) but he isn’t a complete pushover. They like to let him bunt, which I hate because it ruins a perfectly good strikeout. Kelly has whiffed at least once in his last three games so we do have hope. I think this is a great MLB player prop bet.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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