BetsByBob Tuesday MLB Picks: Expect plenty of runs in Pittsburgh
The MLB board has been getting a bit harder to bet here lately, as favorites are getting larger by the day. If you’re into that sort of thing though, they have been hitting at an absurd rate lately. I just can’t bring myself to lay upwards of -180 in an MLB game. There is something to be said about looking to alternative markets, such as team totals, or 1st 5 inning run lines, as those could be ways around laying massive juice. There were a few closely lined games on the betting board today, and I was able to find a few that I liked. I had a winner last night in my Pickswise MLB Newsletter play, making that 6 in a row. If you aren’t signed up for that, you’re missing out. Let’s dig into today’s bets.
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St. Louis Cardinals (J.A. Happ) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Steven Brault)
Play: Over 9 (-115)
*Playable to: Over 9 (-120) or Over 9.5 (+100)
This total jumped out at me right out of the gate when I began scanning the board today. I saw the pitching matchup and thought for sure that this would be about 10. Then I questioned the weather, and while it’s going to be a hot and muggy night at PNC park, it doesn’t look like rain, and some favorable wind direction blowing out.
J.A. Happ gets the start for the visiting Cardinals, and he has been getting rocked lately. He has an ERA of 6.62 with a FIP of 5.38, while giving up a long ball to 4.7% of the batters that face him. Happ is currently sporting a WHIP of 1.568. So there is constantly men on base, and he isn’t missing any bats lately. Just doesn’t seem to have it anymore, as he has been around for a long while. This Pirates lineup is nothing to write home about, but they can still put up some runs. Happ has given up four or more runs in three of his last four starts, and I don’t see today being the one that breaks that trend.
On the other side, Steven Brault is making just his second start of the season. Brault has spent almost all of 2021 rehabbing an injury, and only logged 4 innings in his first appearance of this season. That being said, there isn’t much to go off of for him this season. He has a career 1.511 WHIP, a low strikeout percentage, and will most definitely be on a pitch count here. This should be a good spot for a struggling Cardinals offense to put some runs on the board, and there should be plenty of them to be found today.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers (Casey Mize) @ Baltimore Orioles (Keegan Akin)
Play: Tigers (-115)
*Playable to: Tigers (-125)
This line was much closer to a pick ‘em when I was first going through everything today. It has since moved in the direction of the Tigers, which is indeed the way I believe it should be going. The Tigers have been playing respectable baseball this season, even more so since the All-Star break. They get to take on a troubled Orioles team today, and although it doesn’t have any playoff implication, it should be a fun one.
Casey Mize gets the start for the Tigers today, and is one of the more exciting young pitchers to watch. He has an ERA if 3.57 with a FIP of 4.81, and his success relies on his ability to get ground balls. He has a good splitter and a wipeout slider, and was one of the top pitching prospects for a reason. Mize has done a good job limiting hard contact, rocking a HardHit% of 41.7%. The young right hander has been impressive, and should be able to put together another good outing here today.
Keegan Akin gets the start for the Orioles today, and unlike Mize, he has not had a nice 2021. The 26-year old lefty has an ERA of 7.66 with a FIP of 4.77, and control has been a problem. He has a walk rate of 8.4% and currently has a WHIP of 1.742. It’s really hard to be successful at this level when you allow so many baserunners, and it has really shown for Akin lately. In his last 5 starts, he has given up, 6, 4, 6, 5, and 8 runs. He is getting hit hard, and getting left out there to get experience and try and figure things out. The Tigers lineup has been good this year, and they should be able to get to Akin here today.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles