BetsByBob's Wednesday MLB picks: Look for plenty of runs in Toronto
It was a good Tuesday on the diamond. I was able to go 2-0, and didn’t have to sweat either one too hard.
MLB⚾️8/31: 2-0 (+2.02u)
Reds F5 -0.5 (-112)🌧️
Athletics F5 +0.5 (-125)✅
Nationals F5 -0.5 (+102)✅
— Bets By Bob (@BetsByBob) September 1, 2021
I had 3 plays to start the day, but mother nature had other intentions. The Cardinals and Reds game was postponed due to rain, so they will play an early double-header on what is their getaway day. Speaking of the Reds, I am going to be doing a doubleheader chase with them. Meaning, that I will be betting them the first game, and if that loses, I will be doubling up on them the second game. Doubleheaders have a tendency to split often, with lineups changing sometimes based on the outcome of the first game by the winning team. However, the Reds will have a strong pitching edge in both games, and wouldn’t be surprised if they won both. They are pushing for the playoffs and every game means a lot to them right now. Find me on Twitter @BetsByBob to see how I play it and at what odds when they come out tomorrow.
Baltimore Orioles (Matt Harvey) at Toronto Blue Jays (Steven Matz)
Play: Over 10 (-110)
*Playable to: Over 10 (-120) or Over 10.5 (+100)
The Baltimore Orioles finally were able to win another game on Tuesday night, coming through as nearly a (+300) dog to the Blue Jays. I wouldn’t expect the same outcome again on Wednesday, as they will be sizable underdogs again. That will be a common occurrence moving forward for teams like the Orioles, so we must find other ways to bet those games. One of which is attacking the total.
It’s Matt Harvey day for the Orioles, and over the last few years that means plenty of runs. He comes into this one with an ERA of 6.18 and a FIP of 4.57. Harvey has pitched a little better as of late, but he still has plenty of troubling signs. He has a WHIP of 1.508, and doesn’t miss many barrels at all. Opponents are batting .290 against him, and have an OPS over .800. While this Blue Jays lineup has struggled a bit lately to score, facing Harvey might be just what they need to snap out of it.
Steven Matz gets the assignment for the home team, and while at first glance his numbers look pretty good, there are some other areas of concern. He has an ERA of 3.81, and a FIP right in line of 3.79. Matz has a high BABIP of .319, but his 7-year career average is .307, which is a bit strange in itself. The strikeout rate is down this year, and the WHIP is also high sitting at 1.322. While I don’t expect this Orioles team to come out and shell Matz, they have had good success against him in the past, and can see them getting a few from him here. I like runs to be scored in this one, and am happy to take a flat 10. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one close at 10.5.
Houston Astros (Jake Odorizzi) at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
Play: Astros (-125)
*Playable to: Astros (-135)
The Houston Astros are back at it against the Seattle Mariners, looking to close out their series with a getaway day game in Seattle. Houston has been playing better of late, and seem to like to play to the level of their competition. Luckily for them, the play well against the Mariners, and enjoy beating up on their division rival. I like them to do that again on Wednesday.
Jake Odorizzi will be the scheduled started for the Astros, and he has given them some quality innings this season. His numbers currently stand with an ERA of 4.46, a FIP of 4.95, and a WHIP of 1.252. Odorizzi has remained pretty consistent throughout his career. He has always sat around a sub 40% hard-hit rate, while hovering just over a 20% strikeout clip. He is able to give good innings and keep his team in it, which is all you can ask for when you have an offense like the Astros do.
Logan Gilbert will get the task of opposing Odorizzi on Wednesday. The young right-hander has fared well enough in his first MLB season, but still is a bit unpolished. In 86 innings of work, he has an ERA of 5.44, a FIP of 3.78, and a WHIP of 1.233. Gilbert gives up a good bit of hard contact, to a rate of 44.5%, which is somewhat of an explanation of his .317 BABIP. The low ground-ball rate is something that is hard for him to work around, as opposing batters are squaring the ball up in the air, leading to more dangerous outcomes. I like the Astros to roll in this day game, and they should leave Seattle with the win.