Andrew Ortenberg
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The dust has settled, and there’s only one game left. The Final Four games in the books, and the finale between Duke and North Carolina was as good a game as we could’ve asked. As we get ready to put a bow on this college basketball season, we’ve got Kansas and UNC squaring off for a title. Odds are out, and we’ve got some time to digest before tip-off on Monday night. Let’s dive in, with lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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#1 Kansas vs #8 North Carolina: (Kansas -4.5, O/U 153.5)
North Carolina is going to need to pull off one more upset to complete their improbable run. Oddsmakers have them as a significant, but not massive, underdog against Kansas. The Jayhawks continued to look like somewhat of a juggernaut with a convincing win over Villanova on Saturday, while the Tar Heels squeaked past Duke in a thriller. UNC clearly hasn’t looked like an 8-seed, but does that mean they can cover this spread?
I think it does. We’re not just talking about one fluke win. They’ve already beaten a 1-seed in Baylor in the Round of 32, then they dispatched with UCLA in the Sweet 16. Duke became their latest victim, and with the amount of confidence they’re playing with they might as well be a 1-seed as well. Caleb Love has been sensational, and I haven’t been quite as impressed with Kansas as anyone else. Remember how they looked less than inspiring against both Creighton and Providence earlier in this tournament? At first examination, give me the 4.5 points with the Tar Heels.
The total is a bit trickier. Both offenses have looked great recently, but 153.5 is a lot of points for a National Championship Game. And for as good as Kansas has been on offense, they’ve been just as stout on defense. They’ve given up 65 points or fewer in each of their past three games, and even held Miami to 50. It’s going to be very hard for this total to go over if they stay locked in like that on defense. I lean toward the under, but I don’t feel too strongly about it right now since both teams are shooting it really well.
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