College football’s Selection Sunday has come and gone, but it was not absent of drama. Miami snuck into the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame thanks to its head-to-head win over the Irish back in Week 1, while Tulane and James Madison earned their way into the field thanks to being 2 of the 5 highest-rated conference champions. Teams like Vanderbilt, BYU and Texas were kept out. Ultimately, I think the committee got it right — but there are plenty of people who don’t.
The good news is that we still have more football to play…well, unless you’re Notre Dame — which opted out of its bowl game in protest of the system. To that I say, “join a conference!” But I digress. With full steam ahead for the college football postseason, it’s time to dive into the early lines and odds for all of the bowl and CFP games over the next month and a half before capping it off with a best bet.
Also don’t forget to check our NCAAF predictions for picks on every single postseason game!
Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook as of Monday, December 8
- LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington -8.5 (-110); 51.5 – Saturday, December 13
- Veterans Bowl: Troy -3 (-115) vs. Jacksonville State; 51 – Tuesday, December 16
- Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida -7 (-110); 57 – Wednesday, December 17
- Ventures Bowl: Louisiana -3 (-110) vs. Delaware; 58.5 – Wednesday, December 17
- Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State -2.5 (-110); 56.5 – Thursday, December 18
- Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan -4.5 (-110); 48.5 – Friday, December 19
- Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State -5.5 (-110); 58.5 – Friday, December 19
- Playoff Round 1: Alabama -1 (-105) @ Oklahoma; 40 – Friday, December 19
- Playoff Round1: James Madison @ Oregon -20.5 (-115); 51 – Saturday, December 20
- Playoff Round 1: Tulane @ Ole Miss -16.5 (-115); 57 – Saturday, December 20
- Playoff Round 1: Miami @ Texas A&M -4 (-110); 51.5 – Saturday, December 20
- Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State -1.5 (-110); 55.5 – Monday, December 22
- Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville -9.5 (-110); 46.5 – Tuesday, December 23
- New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky -3.5 (-115) vs. Southern Miss; 55.5 – Tuesday, December 23
- Frisco Bowl: UNLV -4.5 (-110) vs. Ohio; 62.5 – Tuesday, December 23
- Hawai’i Bowl: California -1.5 (-110) vs. Hawai’i; 55 – Wednesday, December 24
- Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern -12.5 (-110); 44.4 – Friday, December 26
- Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota -3 (-115); 47.5 – Friday, December 26
- First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA -9.5 (-110); 58.5 – Friday, December 26
- Military Bowl: Pitt -6 (-110) vs. East Carolina; 59.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State -1 (-110) vs. Clemson; 48.4 – Saturday, December 27
- Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army -2.5 (-110); 50.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU -2.5 (-110); 55.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State -3.5 (-110); 45 – Saturday, December 27
- New Mexico Bowl: North Texas -6 (-110) vs. San Diego State; 56.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri -7 (-110); 50.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston -3 (-110); 42.5 – Saturday, December 27
- Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern -3.5 (-110) vs. App State; 59.5 – Monday, December 29
- Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech -7 (-110); 51.5 – Tuesday, December 30
- Music City Bowl: Tennessee -5.5 (-110) vs. Illinois; 61.5 – Tuesday, December 30
- Alamo Bowl: USC -6.5 (-110) vs. TCU; 58.5 – Tuesday, December 30
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt -4 (-110); 49 – Wednesday, December 31
- Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke -1.5 (-110); 49.5 – Wednesday, December 31
- Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas -4.5 (-115); 46.5 – Wednesday, December 31
- Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah -14 (-110); 49.5 – Wednesday, December 31
- Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State -10.5 (-110); 59.5 – Friday, January 2
- Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati -2.5 (-105); 55.5 – Friday, January 2
- Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State -3 (-110); 56.5 – Friday, January 2
- Holiday Bowl: Arizona -1.5 (-110) vs. SMU; 52.5 – Friday, January 2
Early CFB postseason best bet: Ole Miss Rebels -16.5 (-115) over Tulane Green Wave
Given the state of the transfer portal and opt-out era, it’s very difficult to project who is going to play in many of these bowl games. Therefore, I’m going to stick to the same strategy as last year — when we had Penn State over SMU — and pick a playoff matchup for the sake of this article, as we at least know these teams won’t have significant opt-outs or transfers ahead of this game.
Tulane earned its way into the CFP with a sound victory over North Texas in the AAC Championship, but it also felt like the Mean Green suffered from some poor luck in that game. Multiple passes bounced off receivers’ hands into Tulane’s hands for interceptions, and North Texas even had an interception opportunity bounce off a defenders’ hands into the hands of a Tulane receiver for a first down. The Mean Green out-gained the Green Wave, but 5 turnovers make it extremely hard to win a football game.
I don’t see Ole Miss turning the ball over 5 times at home against Tulane, an opponent the Rebels have already beaten on their home field once this season back in September. The Rebels steamrolled the Green Wave 45-10 as -11.5 favorites, holding Tulane to just 282 total yards and 3.6 yards per pass. Meanwhile, Ole Miss accumulated nearly 550 yards, 11.4 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush.
Going into the AAC Championship game, Tulane’s defense was 61st in PPA per play, 98th in success rate, 84th in stuff rate, 74th in line yards allowed, 63rd in points allowed per quality drive and 57th in havoc generated. The havoc numbers likely took a massive jump following the win over UNT, but — as I alluded to — some of those turnovers felt fortuitous for Tulane. In any case, this defensive profile is not strong enough against an Ole Miss offense that is top 10 in scoring and total offense in addition to top 25 in PPA per play, success rate and points per quality drive. Now mix in the motivation of Ole Miss with something to prove after its coach left for LSU and it’s Rebels or nothing for me here. Grab it before it steams past 17.
