Daily public money update: Bettors backing Warriors on Tuesday
It’s that special time of year when most of the major sports are in action. It’s a lot, and we’re grateful for it. There are plenty of crucial contests coming up, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the ‘books, with the Warriors leading the way on Tuesday.
NBA: Warriors -3.5 @ Knicks
This one is interesting, because the public pounded the Warriors heavily as a four-point favorite on Monday. They failed to cover the spread, but bettors are heading right back to Golden State the next night. The Warriors have been a public side all year, and the excitement surrounding Stephen Curry’s likely breaking of the three-point record tonight ensured there was no way the public would be on the Knicks here.
87 percent of the bets and 82 percent of the public money are on the Warriors as a short road favorite here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. With this being a nationally televised game (TNT) and the Curry record chase, betting volume is likely off the charts. I’m fading the public here and going with Knicks money line as part of my Tuesday mega parlay though (+1332 odds!)
NCAAB: Alabama -3.5 @ Memphis
There’s a decent-sized college basketball slate on Tuesday, and one of the best games is this showdown between Memphis and Alabama. It’s SEC vs AAC, and the public knows who they like here. A total of 81 percent of the bets and 80 percent of the public money are on the Crimson Tide here.
Alabama is 8-1 and has shot up to #6 in the AP poll, so it’s not surprising to see the public hammering them as a modest favorite against an unranked Tigers team. Memphis has been a disappointment at 5-4, and we’re backing the public here with a three-star play on Alabama.
NFL: Chiefs -4 @ Chargers
We’ve got a fun AFC West matchup here for Thursday Night Football as the Chargers host the Chiefs. Kansas City dominated the Raiders last week, and that was enough for everybody to jump back on the bandwagon. A total of 82 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the public money are laying the points with Patrick Mahomes over Justin Herbert for TNF.
Herbert and the Chargers have looked great against the Bengals and Giants the past two weeks, but that wasn’t enough to get anyone excited about Los Angeles as a home underdog here. I’m not sure the Chiefs are fully back just because they’ve beaten up on the Raiders a couple times recently. They haven’t scored more than 22 points against a team other than Las Vegas since October 17th. I’m fading the public again and taking the points here.
NFL: Patriots @ Colts over 45.5
Nothing the public loves more than a good over, right? For the first time this season, we’ll be treated to Saturday NFL games. There are a pair of standalone matchups on Saturday, which will be bet heavily. In the nightcap of the two-game slate the Colts will host the Patriots, and bettors are hoping for lots of action. A total 75 percent of the bets and 86 percent of the public money are on the over 45.5 here in Indy.
The last time the public saw the Patriots play, they were only attempting three passes in a low scoring game. And their defense has been dominant lately, so it’s interesting to see bettors flock toward the over here. We agree that Bill Belichick should let Mac Jones sling it around a bit more here against the Colts’ relatively weak secondary, so we’re taking the over, as well.
NHL: Sharks -145 vs Kraken
Wrapping things up with some hockey. When the season started, it looked like the expansion Kraken might be a public darling just like the Golden Knights were during their magical expansion season. But bettors have quickly realized this Seattle team isn’t quite as promising as that Las Vegas one. And now they’re lining up to fade them. A total of 82 percent of the bets and a whopping 93 percent of the public money are on the Sharks here in the slate’s last game.
The gap in those two percentages indicates some large volume bets have come in on the Sharks as well. Seattle has lost four of five, and we don’t want any part of them right now either. We’re on San Jose, too.