Andrew Ortenberg
NBA
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We’ve got some nice NBA, MLB and NHL action to report on Sunday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big playoff games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Mavericks leading the way.
NBA: Mavericks +6.5 @ Clippers
It’s not every day that we see a big public underdog, especially in the NBA. But that’s exactly the case on Sunday, as bettors are gravitating toward the Mavericks. 78 percent of the bets and 74 percent of the money are taking the points with Dallas, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
Clearly the public doesn’t have much confidence in the Clippers to close out this Game 7. Given how the Clippers have looked at home in this series so far, it’s hard to argue too much. Los Angeles has lost each of their three home games this postseason, so this spread does feel a bit hefty. We’re taking the Mavericks and the points as well.
MLB: A’s -1.5 @ Rockies
Looking at the MLB slate now, and a lot of people are expecting Oakland to win big. 64 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are on the A’s -1.5 here. The big splits between those numbers indicates there have also been some very large volume bets on Oakland’s run line.
The Rockies have been having a very disappointing season, but they’ve still been great at home. Colorado is 19-14 inside the friendly confines of Coors Field. They have a bit of momentum with wins in four of their last six, and we’re not loving Oakland here. We’re fading the public and taking Colorado on the money line. We also have a three-star play for the total in this game.
NHL: Jets at Canadiens under 5.5
The only thing more rare than a public underdog is a public under. But that’s what we’re seeing here for Game 5 of this series in Montreal. The first game of this series was high scoring but the Canadiens won the second game 1-0, and that’s what is most fresh in bettors’ minds.
69 percent of the bets and 69 percent of the money are on the under 5.5 here. Usually bettors like to bet overs and root for shootouts in big games, so this is interesting to see. Winnipeg will be without Mark Scheifele, which is an absolutely massive blow to their offense. As such, we’ve got to take the under as well.
NHL: Avalanche -108 @ Golden Knights
In the nightcap of the two-game NHL slate, bettors are lining up behind Colorado. 68 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money are on the Avalanche money line over Vegas. The Golden Knights scored two goals very late in the game to steal Game 3, and the public thinks they got lucky.
But that’s probably misguided. Colorado was the team that got lucky in Game 2, with a soft penalty call leading to a power-play in overtime. Vegas has swarmed in each of the past two games, dominating the shot count. We’re fading the public again here and going with the Golden Knights.
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