Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA, MLB and NHL action to report on Friday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big playoff games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Nets leading the way.
NBA: Nets -8 at Celtics
The Nets are far the biggest spread side of Friday’s NBA playoffs slate. The public has seen Brooklyn cruise to a 2-0 series lead and cover both games, so they’re going right back to the well. Ninety percent of the bets and 93 percent of the money are on Brooklyn minus the points here, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The Nets narrowly covered the spread in the first game, but then dominated in the second. They blew out Boston by 22 points, and the Celtics just don’t have the upside without Jaylen Brown. The Nets led by around 30 for much of Game 2, so we can’t pass on the opportunity to lay single digits with them here either.
NBA: Knicks at Hawks over 211.5
There’s nothing the public loves more than a good over, especially in a big game. This pivotal Game 3 showdown between the Hawks and Knicks certainly qualifies. Seventy two percent of the bets and 72 percent of the money are on the over in Atlanta.
The Knicks are obviously a defensive team, and they just held the Hawks to 92 points in Game 2, so this is somewhat interesting to see. There were only 193 total points scored on Wednesday. In Game 1 there were 212, and Knicks lead scorer Julius Randle has been awful in the series, so we’re fading the public and going under.
NBA: Clippers at Mavericks over 222
Another total, another over. Bettors are lining up even more heavily behind the over in Dallas as the Mavericks seek to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Clippers. Eighty eight percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money are on the over 222 here. Ninety percent is about as high as you’ll see a totals bet split get, so this is a pretty strong endorsement from the public.
The Mavericks have been on fire from downtown, which fueled the Game 2 shootout. Bettors and oddsmakers have overreacted to one game. Despite the Mavs shooting 47 percent from deep in Game 1, there were still only 216 total points in that one. With shooting regression inevitably hitting Dallas shortly, there’s value on the under here. Fade the public once again.
MLB: Dodgers -1.5 vs. Giants
Let’s look at the baseball slate now. The Los Angeles Dodgers were unsurprisingly a staple of this column early on, but then they went on a very uncharacteristic losing streak. They’ve since rebounded with more dominant play, and the public didn’t miss a beat hopping back on the train.
Seventy eight percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on the Dodgers -1.5 at home against the Giants. Additionally, 86 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on their money line at -205. The Dodgers have won 13 of their past 15, so we couldn’t possibly fade them either. We’re taking Los Angeles as well.
NHL: Golden Knights -180 vs. Wild
We’ll finish things off with some playoff hockey. It doesn’t get much more exciting than a Game 7, and the public know who they like in this win-or-go-home clash. Seventy nine percent of the bets and 89 percent of the money are on the Golden Knights’ money line to advance.
Vegas has lost the last two games after going up 3-1 in the series, but bettors aren’t too concerned. We aren’t either. The Golden Knights are still the far superior team, so don’t overreact to a couple of bad offensive nights. We’re taking the puck line though to get some plus-money.
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