Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers predictions, odds, spreads & betting lines: Aaron Rodgers and Packers bounce back

It would be fair to argue that no one needs a win more than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost each of its last 5 games and is currently sat with a 3-6 record in the NFC North. While playoff hopes are drastically fading, it’s quickly becoming a case of trying to save face for the Packers. They now welcome the Cowboys to Lambeau Field, with Dak Prescott and Dallas fighting to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. Who will come out victorious? Our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.

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NFL Week 10 Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers expert predictions

Given how the Packers have looked lately, and the fact Rodgers threw 3 interceptions against the Lions last week, it’s hard to see past a Cowboys victory. However, anything can happen when Lambeau Field is booming and this crowd won’t be ready to give up on its team just yet. There’s every chance that this game might be closer than many anticipate.

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers spread, odds & betting lines

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5, Packers +4.5
Total Points Over/Under: 42.5 points
Money Line Odds: Cowboys -200, Packers +170

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Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers expert picks

We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Cowboys and Packers.

Cowboys vs Packers point spread pick: Packers +4.5 (-110)

This is a tough bet to make based on the eye test, but most of the prominent ratings systems I subscribe to have this game much closer to a pick’em, which makes some sense considering this line originated Packers -4.5 over the summer and barring a QB change, it’s not often NFL ratings flip by almost 10 full points in just 9 weeks. I understand it’s hard to see the light through the forest of ineptitude that is the Green Bay offense right now, but there’s always a bottom in every market, especially one as volatile as the NFL, and especially when you have a QB like Aaron Rodgers under center.

The two-time defending MVP threw 3 picks and graded out negatively in both CPOE and EPA/play against the Lions and to make matters worse there are also fresh injury concerns popping up all over the field. RB Aaron Jones (foot) returned to practice Wednesday in a limited role, but many other key players missed including 2 starters on the offensive line (OT David Bakhtiari, OG Elgton Jenkins) and 3 starters on defense (LB Rashan Gary, LB De’Vonre Campbell, CB Eric Stokes). Additionally other key players like starting OG Jon Runyan, starting OLB Preston Smith, and backup CB Rasul Douglas were all limited. Even Rodgers himself missed practice completely with a right thumb injury, which could also be a reason for some of the inconsistencies with the passing game. Those are all situations to monitor this week.

There’s certainly a lot to like about the Cowboys getting healthier off the bye and entering Lambeau with the best schedule adjusted efficiency in the NFL, but I’m expecting a spirited effort by the Packers here after the embarrassment in Detroit.

Be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs Packers predictions

Cowboys vs Packers Over/Under totals pick: Under 42.5 (-110)

There are not a lot of analytical reasons to believe there will be points scored in this game. The Packers offense looked lifeless last week in Detroit, grading out 16th out of 24 teams in EPA/play despite facing a Lions defense that was dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency. It will be a big step up in class this week against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys, who lead the NFL in that category. Parsons is evolving into a generational edge rusher and currently leads the NFL in pass rush win rate this season.

In my eyes, the Packers only avenue to success is leaning on the run game to try and slow down the Cowboys pass rush. Green Bay certainly has the horses to do it, depending of course on the injury status of Aaron Jones, who practiced in a limited role on Wednesday after injuring his foot against the Lions. AJ Dillon could also be utilized heavily. If Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery can combine for 152 yards on 31 carries, there’s no reason to think Jones and Dillon can’t find some space on the ground. That combined with the Packers being one of the slowest-paced offenses in the league leads me to believe there is a real path to the under here.

The Cowboys like to speed things up and have some explosive elements in their offense, but they’re coming off the bye and I would not be surprised if they started a bit slow, which is all we need for this to stay under. It’s not my favorite play of the week, but it’s hard to expect this game being a shootout at Lambeau.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers expert predictions

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