The Browns reached the must-win stage of their season earlier than most teams when a 4-game losing streak dropped them to 2-5, but an impressive Monday Night Football win over the Bengals kept hope alive and they head to Miami on Sunday fresh from their bye week. The aim for the Browns this season was just to try to stay in the hunt until new QB Deshaun Watson is eligible to play after an 11-game suspension. There are 3 more games for backup Jacoby Brissett to negotiate before Watson can return and the next test is against the team he played for last season, the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have a superior record at 6-3 but can’t afford to ease up with the Bills and Jets above them in the AFC standings heading into this week. Their wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is arguably the best in the league, but their last 3 wins over lesser teams have not been as dominant as they would have wanted. Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this key AFC matchup at Hard Rock Stadium (1:00pm ET, CBS).
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The big question about the Browns coming into this season was whether their offense could be good enough with Brissett at quarterback to keep their playoff hopes alive until Watson was eligible to play. As it turned out, the offensive has been absolutely fine, scoring 25 points per game (to Miami’s 23.7), while defensive meltdowns cost them early wins over the Jets and Falcons and have left them with an uphill fight. The good news is that the light seemed to have gone on for the defense in a narrow loss to the Ravens and the huge win over the Bengals, so the Browns return from their bye with players coming back after injuries and renewed hope.
The Dolphins have been an exciting team to watch under Mike McDaniel (who was the Browns’ WRs coach in 2014) and they are a threat to score on any play with Hill and Waddle on the field. The Dolphins made a 3-0 start before being rocked by successive losses to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Wins over the Steelers, Lions and Bears since have come by just 6, 4 and 3 points, though, and Miami won’t be taking the challenge of the Browns lightly.
Point spread: Browns +3.5, Dolphins -3.5
Total points over/under: 49.5
Money Line odds: Browns +155, Dolphins -174
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We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Browns and Dolphins.
It’s a Jacoby Brissett revenge game as the Cleveland Browns travel south to take on the Miami Dolphins. The Browns are coming off their bye week and will be looking to keep the momentum going from their Week 8 win over the Bengals that snapped a 4-game skid. For a few reasons, I think they’ll be able to do so. Miami has struggled to stop the run, and it got so bad last week that Chicago’s Justin Fields set the all-time record for rushing yards by a quarterback against them. As such, I expect Browns RB Nick Chubb to have a big day. Chubb has been averaging a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry this season and has rushed for at least 87 yards in all but one game. Cleveland’s record says 3-5, but it could easily be a lot better. Four of their 5 losses this season have come by 3 or fewer points, so I feel great about being able to get more than a field goal for this game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s numbers recently look great, but the Dolphins have been playing a ton of weak defenses. Tagovailoa’s 3 starts since returning from injury have come against the Steelers, Lions and Bears. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Right before this weak stretch in the schedule, the Dolphins had lost 3 straight. And their defense has mostly looked terrible this season. It also can’t hurt that the Browns have won both times they’ve been coming off their bye with Kevin Stefanski as head coach.
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The over also makes a lot of sense. The Miami secondary is really banged up and they haven’t been able to stop anybody. In 5 of their past 6 games, they’ve given up at least 24 points. The only time they didn’t give up 24+ points in that span was when they played the Steelers, and Kenny Pickett was making his second career start in a primetime game. Justin Fields put up historic numbers on Miami’s defense in Week 9, and the week before that, they gave up 27 points to Jared Goff and the Lions.
On the flip side, Tua Tagovailoa has been able to light it up thanks to his new weapons, and Miami has scored 66 points across the last 2 contests. Tagovailoa has 684 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in those games. The Browns’ defense has been a big disappointment overall this season, and they’ve played in plenty of shootouts.
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