The Bills will want to get back on track as soon as possible after last week’s loss to the Jets, but that plan has been made more difficult by an elbow injury to star quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has not been able to practise this week, and it seems more likely that backup Case Keenum will start against the Vikings, one of his former teams, although Allen has not yet been ruled out officially.
Even at full strength, this would not be an easy game for the 6-2 Bills, as the 7-1 Vikings are having a great start to life under new coach Kevin O’Connell, with their only loss coming to the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles. Will the Bills’ continue to slide due to Allen’s injury? Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this crucial AFC vs NFC game.
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NFL Week 10 Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions
The Bills remain favorites to win the Super Bowl this season despite picking up their second loss of the season against the New York Jets last week. When they find their A-game the Bills can look unstoppable, but they can throw in the occasional lesser performance, even though their losses were by just 2 and 3 points. Both those defeats were on the road, though, and the Bills are 3-0 in front of their own fans. The good news for the Bills is that they have one of the stronger backup QBs in the league in Keenum, who led Sunday’s opponents, the Vikings, to the NFC Championship game in 2017. The Bills also have defensive injuries to deal with, as safety Jordan Poyer and DE Greg Rousseau have been ruled out.
The Vikings have exceeded expectations with their strong start to the year and they have won 6 straight games since losing to the Eagles in Week 2. The Vikes have been fine on the road since then, however, beating the Dolphins and Commanders, and also winning against the Saints in London. With a huge lead in the NFC North over the Packers, Lions and Bears, there is not a great deal at stake for the Vikings in this game, but a road win in Buffalo would be a notable achievement and with talented playmakers on both sides, a great game is in prospect.
Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Vikings +3.5, Bills -3.5
Total points over/under: 42.5-43.5 points
Money Line odds: Vikings +154, Bills -175
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Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Vikings and Bills.
Vikings vs Bills point spread pick: Vikings +3.5 (-108)
Betting this game comes down to whether or not you believe Josh Allen will play as the line has steadily dropped from Bills minus-6 to minus-3.5 due to the status of Allen’s elbow. Reports suggest his UCL sprain is also affecting nerves which has him experiencing numbness in his fingertips and makes gripping the football difficult. Case Keenum is the Bills’ backup quarterback and while he is comfortable in Sean McDermott’s offense and him starting could add some emotion with him and receiver Stefon Diggs playing against their former team, he is far from the passer Allen is and will likely be exposed against an underrated Vikings defense.
The Bills defense remains unchanged with the Allen situation, but they are still dealing with injuries to their secondary with safety Jordan Poyer out and cornerback Tre’Davious White questionable for Sunday’s game. The Bills’ run defense is also having issues, allowing the 6th-most rushing yards per game over the last 3 weeks. Expect the Vikings to come out strongly with RB Dalvin Cook and allow that to open up the play-action downfield. The game should stay close, but either no Allen or a limited Allen tips the scales in Minnesota’s favor.
Be sure to check out our full Vikings vs Bills predictions
Vikings vs Bills Over/Under totals pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Whether Josh Allen plays or not, this game is likely to disappoint those expecting a high-scoring affair. The weather is expected to be cold with a chance of snow, the Vikings are running the ball with Dalvin Cook a lot more than expected and the Bills are likely to go with a stronger-than-usual ground game to either limit Allen’s throwing or take the pressure off backup Case Keenum. The over/under has dropped several points already with the news of Allen’s elbow issues.
The Allen injury has taken all of the focus when looking at this game, but we should remember that the Bills defense ranks 4th in DVOA overall and while the Vikings rank 19th, they are allowing just 111.3 rushing yards per game and fewer than 260 through the air. The Vikings’ pass defense has also generated the 6th-most sacks, ranks just outside the top 10 in quarterback pressures and continues to move up. With both teams likely to lean on the run and the Bills using either a limited Allen or a cold Keenum, we can expect a competitive battle but not one in which points are going to be free-flowing.
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Read our other NFL predictions for Week 10:
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers predictions
- Saints vs Steelers predictions
- Browns vs Dolphins predictions
- Cowboys vs Packers predictions
Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills expert predictions
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and NFL Best Bets from the rest of the Week 10 action.
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