NFL Picks

NFL picks for every game of the 2025-26 season. Our NFL expert picks are informed by key betting trends, statistical analysis and years of NFL betting experience. +82.1 units profit, from 309 winning NFL picks across the 2025 regular season and playoffs is the proof.

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6:30 PM ET

Sun Feb 8

NBC

Seahawks

Patriots

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Point Spread PickBest Bet

SEA Seahawks -4.5(-115)

Reasoning

The Patriots advanced to Super Bowl LX, but it wasn’t pretty. Right from the start, Drake Maye and the offense looked out of place. In the opening series, Maye nearly threw an interception that really should have been a pick-six. A fortunate fumble by Jarrett Stidham, forced by an opportunistic defense, created a scoring opportunity for New England despite only gaining 67 yards in the first half. In the second half, they opened up with an incredible drive (9 minutes and 31 seconds), but they still couldn’t cash it in to score a touchdown. From there, the weather took over, disabling both offenses from gaining significant yardage or putting any more points on the scoreboard. New England’s defense was impressive when it had to be, although Stidham and the Denver offense moved the ball when the weather was complementary, gaining 9 first downs in the first half.

Under the new regime of Mike Vrabel and their 2nd-year star quarterback, the Patriots are clearly a very good team or they wouldn’t be in the championship game. They’ve also had an extremely advantageous route to get there. According to many different metrics, the Patriots were given the easiest schedule in the NFL in the regular season. In the playoffs, they beat 2 hapless offenses that EPA metrics ranked in the bottom-10. In the AFC Championship, they faced a backup quarterback, yet still nearly lost. We respect and we are impressed by what the Patriots have done this season, but we’re still inclined to doubt purely because of how they got there.

On the other hand, we couldn’t be more impressed by Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks. The Rams brought an extremely prolific offense and Super Bowl-winning quarterback to Lumen Field, but it was Seattle’s defense that made the biggest plays in high-pressure moments. On a crucial 84-yard drive late in the 4th quarter, Matthew Stafford and his teammates were stymied just 6 yards from the end zone, a stop that ended up deciding the contest. Even better, Sam Darnold played one of the cleanest, most efficient games of his career (25/36, 346 yards, 3 touchdowns). He avoided mistakes, stayed poised, and converted for multiple first downs on his team’s final drive. Giving Stafford and the Rams’ offense less than 30 seconds, Seattle closed it out and outperformed one of the NFL’s best teams for the 2nd time this season. The Seahawks are perhaps the most well-balanced team in the NFL (and it’s shown).

We are huge fans of Mike Vrabel and 2 years ago thought it was clinically insane when the Titans’ front office decided to fire him. His coaching was New England’s edge in the AFC Championship game and we’re positive his Patriots will be back in the postseason for many years to come. At the same time, Seattle’s defense is extremely disciplined and effective in big moments. We trust them to rattle young Drake Maye. Meanwhile, Darnold is playing at the highest level of his career. We also trust Macdonald, who is clearly one of the league’s best and brightest young coaches, to have his boys ready. Furthermore, we expect the Seahawks’ offense and its many weapons to find success early and often, even if New England’s defense plays its best. Most importantly, Seattle has been battle-tested far more than New England, which will pay instant dividends in the most nerve-racking spot of the season. The matchup and the intangibles favor a runaway victory for the Seahawks.

Seahawks vs Patriots best bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 46.5(-110)

Reasoning

EPA metrics will tell you that the Patriots are the best offense in the NFL, but their slate of opponents certainly gives us pause. In the regular season, they only faced 3 defenses that ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA per play. One of those defenses was the Browns, who are notably worse on the road (18 points per game allowed at home, 27 points per game away from home). In general, Drake Maye and his offense have had a red carpet rolled out for them. This is not their fault, but it also doesn’t provide the same confidence that we have in their opponent.

In most regular-season games, they were comfortably in the lead thanks to an upstart defense and less-than-stingy opponents. The playoffs have been a different story. In every postseason game, they battled a top-10 defense and the result has been obvious; they’re simply not as good against better groups, averaging just 18 points per game in 3 contests. Maye’s playoff statistics are also rather subpar: 33/56, (58.9%), 674 total yards (224 per game), 4 touchdowns, 4 turnovers and 19 punts.

On Super Bowl Sunday, the Patriots’ offense will face one of the NFL’s premier units. Last week, Matt Stafford and the Rams mostly had their way with Seattle’s defense, but that’s been par for the course in their rivalry. We don’t see anything remotely similar for New England.

Mike Macdonald’s roster plays with the same aggressive style that he coaches with, a group that’s 2nd only to the Texans in total defensive EPA. It’s nearly impossible to run on Seattle (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 1st overall) and their secondary holds opposing quarterbacks to a league-best 6.0 yards per pass. For a quarterback like Drake Maye, who has been brilliant in spots but simply hasn’t been challenged very much, an unfamiliar Seattle defense will be an extremely tough test.

Both coaches favor defense. Sam Darnold has played extremely well, but we’ve seen him freeze in big moments, and we certainly expect some freezing from Drake Maye. As exciting as it would be to predict a high-scoring battle, these are 2 programs with very little Super Bowl experience, which also favors defense. We suggest waiting on this total, since it will likely be pushed up before kickoff. Even at the current number, we project fewer points.

Seahawks vs Patriots prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Player Interceptions Pick

S. Darnold (SEA) - Under 0.5 INTs(+110)

Reasoning

I’m not sure why there would have been any lingering doubts about Darnold even prior to the NFC Championship. If there were, they are gone now. In the biggest game of his career, Darnold played one of his best – completing 25 of 36 attempts for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. The former USC standout is INT-free through 2 playoff games and has not been picked off since Week 17. Further, Darnold has not thrown an interception in 6 of his last 10 games. The former #3 overall pick threw 14 INTs in the regular season, but those came in bunches (4 against the Rams on November 16, for example). Now, however, they aren’t coming at all. Yes, New England’s defense is good — but it’s a unit that grabbed only 10 picks while surrendering 25 TDs through the air in the regular season. At plus money, this prop has great value.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

K. Walker (SEA) - Over 23.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

The Seahawks’ backfield now belongs entirely to Walker after Zach Charbonnet went down with a torn ACL in the divisional round against the 49ers. Walker promptly delivered 111 yards from scrimmage and 1 touchdown in Seattle’s NFC Championship victory over Los Angeles. Four of his 23 touches were receptions, which he turned into 49 yards. The Michigan State product has exceeded this 23.5 number in 3 consecutive contests and in 4 of the last 5. In his last 3 regular-season games, Walker had receiving performances of 64 and 36 yards – and that was when he was still splitting time with Charbonnet. The Seahawks now face a Patriots defense that yielded 84 receptions to opposing RBs in the regular season (5th-most in the NFL). New England head coach Mike Vrabel will likely channel his inner Bill Belichick and attempt to take away Seattle’s best player, who is WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He can do that with double-teams while putting CB Christian Gonzalez on WR2 Cooper Kupp, or Vrabel can let Gonzalez try to contain JSN by himself with some safety help. Either way, the Pats’ pass defense won’t be focused on KW3.

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Player Pass Attempts Pick

D. Maye (NE) - Over 30.5 pass atts(-103)

Reasoning

First of all, this will likely be a negative game script for the Patriots. They are +4.5 underdogs and a lot of people – me included – think they would do well to stay within that number. If New England is playing from behind all or most of the way, Maye will be forced to air it out. That is what the majority of Seattle’s opponents have done. During the regular season, teams attempted 600 passes against the Seahawks – fifth most in the NFL. Andy why not? Seattle’s run defense ranked #3 in the league and #1 in yards per carry allowed (3.7). Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took to the air 35 times in the NFC Championship. As for Maye, his relatively low passing numbers in the playoffs can be thrown out the window due to playing conditions. In the regular season, the former UNC standout exceeded this 30.5 quota in 5 of the last 8 contests – a stretch that included games with 44, 35 and 34 attempts. Maye should be in line for a lot during the Super Bowl.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

H. Henry (NE) - Over 36.5 rec yds(-110)

Reasoning

There is no denying that Seattle’s pass defense is also stout, but it can be attacked from the tight-end position. The Seahawks surrendered the fifth-most receptions to opposing tight ends (105) and the sixth-most yards in the regular season. I expect that trend to continue, especially with CB Devon Witherspoon likely to put the clamps down on Patriots WR1 Stefon Diggs. That will put the pressure on Henry to step up, and he definitely can. Henry racked up 64 yards and a touchdown in the wild-card round against the Chargers before bad weather prevented anyone on offense from doing much against the Texans and Broncos. The Arkansas product surpassed this 36.5 number 10 times during the regular season, including in 5 of the last 7 games. During that stretch, he gained fewer than 35 yards only once.

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Ricky Dimon

Same Game Parlay

Alternate Game Totals

Over 49.5

Player Rushing+Receiving Yards

K. Walker (SEA) - 125+ rush+rec yds

Player Passing Touchdowns

S. Darnold (SEA) - Over 1.5 pass TDs

Player Passing Touchdowns

D. Maye (NE) - Over 1.5 pass TDs

Reasoning

Over 49.5 alternate spread (+138)

There is no denying that these 2 defenses are stout, but I’m rolling with offense in Super Bowl 60. These offenses are no slouches, either. The Seahawks averaged 28.4 points per game during the regular season; the Patriots were even better at 28.8. Darnold has been effective all season long and was especially impressive throughout a 31-27 victory over the Rams this past weekend. Maye is in the MVP discussion.

Both quarterbacks are complemented by reliable pass-catchers (in some cases superstars) and solid running games. Seattle has scored 41 and 31 points in its 2 playoff outings. New England hasn’t been close to that level, but it hasn’t been required to do so. When forced to keep with such a dynamic Seahawks attack, the Pats will have to get out of conservative mode and dial up some electricity on offense. Don’t be shocked by an entertaining, back-and-forth battle for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LX.

Kenneth Walker III to record 125+ rushing+receiving yards (+168)

Seattle’s backfield was cut in half in the Divisional Round against the 49ers, when Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL. Unsurprisingly, Walker was up to the task in the NFC Championship as the Seahawks’ lone running back. The Michigan State product delivered 111 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches and also scored 1 touchdown. That was preceded by a 116-yard, 3-touchdown rushing performance against the 49ers. The Patriots’ run defense is good but nothing special, plus they allowed the 5th-most catches to opposing running backs (85) in the regular season. New England cornerback Christian Gonzalez should be able to at least somewhat contain Seattle WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Walker could be in line for plenty of catches and receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-114)

Although Walker is more than capable of shouldering the load, Charbonnet’s absence could really be felt in the red zone. Charbonnet scored 12 touchdowns during the regular season compared to Walker’s 5. Well, those TDs have to go somewhere – especially if this game is going to exceed 49.5 points. Count on Darnold picking up the slack, just as he did with an NFC Championship performance that won’t soon be forgotten in Seattle. The USC product tossed 3 scoring strikes and went for 346 yards, marking the 9th time this season he has thrown for multiple touchdowns. Although the Patriots’ defense is solid, they surrendered 25 passing TDs during the regular season compared to only 11 on the ground.

Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)

As mentioned above, the expected game script does not call for conservative football being played by New England’s offense. Look for head coach Mike Vrabel to let it rip with Maye. And why not? This is a bona fide NFL MVP candidate we are talking about (will likely finish 2nd in the voting behind Matthew Stafford). Maye hasn’t done much with his arm in these playoffs (although he did throw 3 TDs against Houston), but that’s because the weather conditions and the matchups didn’t call for it. The story will likely be much different against Seattle in (hopefully) sunny California. If asked to do a lot, Maye can certainly deliver. The former UNC standout finished the regular season with a 31-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and he tossed 8 TD passes in the final 3 games alone.

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Why Trust our NFL Picks

At the conclusion of the 2025 regular season, our team of NFL handicappers accumulated 296 wins (and 4 pushes) across sides and totals picks for every game, over those 18 weeks our record speaks for itself. Our expert NFL picks scored +78.1 units of profit throughout the regular season.

We backed that up with a further 13 winning NFL Picks through the playoffs. Focus now shifts to Super Bowl 60, and as we have all season, we’ll have NFL picks for Seahawks vs Patriots.

You can see the full breakdown of our NFL picks record this season below:

NFL Pick	Wins	Push	Losses	Profit (betting units)
Sides (Moneyline/ATS)	158	3	121	+59.2
Totals (Over / Under)	151	1	130	+22.9
Total	307	4	249	+82.1

2025 Regular Season + Playoffs

At Pickswise, every NFL pick is backed by years of betting experience, advanced data analysis, and a proven track record of success. Our team of handicappers studies line movement, injury reports, historical trends, and matchup stats to deliver informed recommendations — not guesses. We publish our results openly, update our predictions as new information emerges, and never hide behind vague analysis. Whether you’re looking for expert spreads, totals, props, or parlays, our mission is simple: give you honest, well-researched picks that stand up over time.

Free NFL Picks Explained

We firmly believe expert NFL picks should be free, so you’ll find our NFL picks today, and every day of the season, right here. We publish our free NFL picks for every game, at least a few days in advance of gameday, so you know who the experts are backing without missing out on the early value in the betting markets.

There’s almost an infinite way to bet on the NFL, from NFL picks against the spread, moneyline, over/under, NFL Parlays, and NFL Prop Bets, there is a bet type for every kind of football fan, so we provide NFL picks for every bet type. Some bettors like to specialize in a single particular type of NFL pick, while others like to have a diverse range and bet on anything they feel is a value pick.

Here at Pickswise, we have something for everyone. Our team of handicappers have a wealth of experience in making NFL picks across all these betting markets, leaving no stone unturned ahead of every game and every pick of the 2025 NFL season. If you’re looking for more information on NFL bet types, You can find our expert breakdown of each below.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

The most popular way to bet on the NFL is against the spread (ATS). With these wagers, you are not picking a simple winner or loser of a game. Instead, ATS betting is placing your money that Team A wins by a certain amount of points or that Team B will keep the game closer than oddsmakers expect, in other words, not lose by that same amount of points.

For Example

Philadelphia Eagles -7 – Philadelphia must win by 8 or more points to cover the spread.
Chicago Bears +7 – Chicago must win, or lose by 6 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Tie Scenario – If the game ended 27-20 to Philadelphia, the spread would be a tie, or a push and stakes would be returned.

NFL spread betting trends 2025

The team that covers the spread wins the game outright around 80% of the time.
Road teams going into games as the favorite have covered the spread at 64% so far this season
Teams coming off a blowout loss (20+ points) tend to rebound against the spread, 57% of the time.

Free NFL Over / Under Picks

Another exciting way to still get in on the NFL action is with totals wagers. In these bets you don’t take a side, but whether the two teams will combine to score over or under the total number of points that the oddsmakers have set. Already since sports betting has been legalized we’ve seen many occasions where a hail mary, missed FG or XP has cost over or unders bettors, so be prepared to be in for the long haul with your totals bets. We preview every game of the NFL season, providing insight into the game as a whole alongside expert NFL picks so you can make informed NFL totals bets.

NFL over / under betting trends

Overall, unders have proven the value pick in recent seasons, as defenses have caught up with scoring trending down since 2021
Unders bets have the edge in divisional games, landing 57% of the time. This trend gets stronger late in the season (week 13 onwards), especially in cold weather conditions.
Unders bets have landed on 58% of primetime games, as public betting tends to have a bias for the overs in these games.

Money Line NFL Picks

Ask any seasoned NFL bettor and they’ll tell you that ATS betting is exciting, but can also be frustrating. It is important to keep in mind that NFL teams only need to win by one, of course, they’d love to win by more, but they’ll change their schemes late on to secure a win, not to ensure they cover the spread. Your research could have given you the right side, but if they win by 6 instead of 7 your -6.5 bet is a loss. Therefore a lot of bettors like to keep it simple and take our expert NFL Money Line picks and bet on the NFL straight up.

NFL Moneyline betting trends

Through the first 4 weeks of the 2025 season 6+ point favourites have been strong straight up, with a 16-2-1 record
Short underdogs (+1 to +3 on the spread) win outright 43% of the time, offering better value on the moneyline than the spread
Underdogs in lower scoring road games (less than 42 total points) win outright 39% of the time, but often at better prices than this record suggests.

2025-26 NFL Schedule

This will be the 106th season in league history and is set to kick off with the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday, September 4, hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles, who take on the Dallas Cowboys. The regular season will come to a conclusion on January 4, 2026 with the NFL Playoffs scheduled to begin the following weekend on the 10th, 11th & 12th of January 2026. Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California, the home of the 49ers.

NFL Playoff Picks

You can find our NFL picks for the 2026 Playoffs, right here, for free. Wildcard Weekend is scheduled to start January 10, upon the conclusion of week 18 our experts start to make their picks and predictions for the first round of the playoffs and after each round is concluded we prepare for the coming weekend, all the way up to the Super Bowl.

NFL Playoff Picks
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks
NFL Divisional Round Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks

NFL Expert Picks

Our NFL Football picks will be for every game throughout the regular season, with primetime games and the top matchups each week getting additional expert coverage which will extend to every playoff game. These NFL Football picks will come alongside analysis and the latest stats and trends to consider when betting. You can also find our NFL Best Bets for the top plays of the week and a confidence rating for our expert handicapper.

Looking for alternative football picks? then head to our College Football Picks page, where you’ll find the same level of expertise from the Pickswise handicapping team for all the headline games in the 2025 NCAA football season.

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Andrew Wilsher, Managing Editor of Pickswise

Statistical Approach to NFL Picks

It’s our goal to provide you with the best NFL picks in the market. Our expert handicappers are all specially selected and assessed prior to joining the team to ensure their analysis. experience and results are among the best in the industry. Each capper will put hours of research into each pick and many have built statistical models to find their moneyline, spread and over/under picks so you don’t have to. Check out all of our cappers’ free NFL picks here every week of the season.

Andrew Wilsher, Pickswise Managing Editor

NFL Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against The Spread In The NFL?

To bet against the spread in the NFL you are either betting the favorite to win by x number of points or the underdog to win, or lose by fewer than x points. For example the Chiefs -7 points or the Panthers +7 points.

The number of points is set by sportsbooks and is often referred to as the line

What Is The Best Website For NFL Picks Against The Spread?

Pickswise is the best website to get free NFL picks against the spread. Our handicappers provide free insight, analysis, and data to back up which way they’re siding against the spread for every NFL game. So far this NFL season our experts have secured 86 winning NFL picks for a profit of 26 units

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