Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off with Thursday Night Football between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills. Both teams are 1-0 after surviving wild openers. Detroit scraped past New Orleans 31-30 in overtime, while Buffalo prevailed at Houston 36-31. Both offenses looked hot while the defenses left much to be desired, but that's a recipe for a ton of fireworks on TNF. Let's get into our Lions vs Bills Same Game Parlay picks for TNF at +950 odds, with kickoff set for 8:15 PM ET live on Amazon Prime Video. You can also get our expert NFL picks for TNF and every game in Week 2.
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Buffalo receiver DJ Moore racking up his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a Bills win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is partly the case with backing Detroit quarterback Jared Goff to have a big night through the air. However, if the Bills are ahead, then that will force Goff to utilize the passing game more, so this is a clever way of actually making a contrarian leg correlate as well. Let’s break down each of the three legs.
Each team came out on the right end of a high-scoring thriller this past weekend, but Buffalo was far more impressive in the process. Josh Allen and company had to face Houston on the road, and the Texans arguably boasted the best defense in all of football last season. The visitors promptly racked up 409 total yards of offense on 7.9 yards per play. They did not commit a single turnover while forcing two.
That is bad news for the Lions, who just barely beat the Saints at home despite the fact that New Orleans turned the ball over three times. Detroit can’t expect to benefit from those kinds of mistakes by Allen and the Bills. The Lions will have to improve dramatically on defense after surrendering 366 yards in the second half and overtime to the Saints. Coming back home to a new stadium and coming off a massive season-opening victory, this is a fantastic spot for the Bills to maintain momentum.
Don't miss pro NFL bettor Chris Farley's 5-star Lions vs Bills best bet
Not only are the Bills playing in a new stadium, but they also have a new head coach in offensive guru Joe Brady and a new receiver in DJ Moore. Early returns on all fronts are encouraging. Even against one of the best defenses in the NFL, Buffalo’s offense looked like a juggernaut in Week 1. Allen threw for 334 yards, 100 of which went to Moore on five receptions. Now they get to face a Detroit defense that got torched by second-year QB Tyler Shough and a New Orleans attack that pales in comparison to that of Buffalo.
It doesn’t help that the Lions lost cornerback Terrion Arnold to domestic issues during the offseason (they released him in June on the heels of felony charges). Moore, who has exceeded this number in two of his last three games and four of his last seven dating back to last year with Chicago, should be able to take advantage.
As mentioned previously, this play actually correlates quite nicely with Buffalo winning and covering, because Goff will have to air it out early and often if his team is playing from behind. The former #1 overall pick (2016) did not do a whole lot against New Orleans, but that was because Detroit led basically the entire game before collapsing late in regulation. As such, Jahmyr Gibbs got 29 carries. Expect fewer rushing attempts for Gibbs and more passes by Goff when the Lions visit Orchard Park on TNF. Goff exceeded the 300-yard mark in four of his last five games during the 2025 campaign; he should be able to do it again in this spot.
