Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
Man vs Machine
Welcome to the 2021 edition of Man vs Machine. This NFL season, I’ll be making my five best NFL bets each week. Our Pickswise supercomputer will make its best five bets, and then we’ll compare. May the best man (or machine) win.
Our computer model gives probabilities and projections for the main NFL betting markets (spread, total & money line), best bets for spread, total, money line, and same game parlays. It also features prop bet probabilities for first and anytime touchdown scorer, plus individual player projections for passing, rushing, receiving yards, and touchdowns for betting and fantasy use.
For more information on how the supercomputer works and how it generates picks, scroll down to the bottom of this page. Now let’s look at the picks.
My 5 best bets
Bengals +4 over Chiefs
The Chiefs’ offense has had a great past three weeks, but that’s because they were facing three defenses that have been really struggling. I don’t think all their issues are solved, and Joe Burrow is playing as well as any quarterback right now.
Washington +4.5 over Eagles
This is a classic case of buy low and sell high. Philly might be 8-7, but not a single one of their eight wins have been impressive. I’m not giving them too much credit for beating up on quarterbacks like Jake Fromm and Garrett Gilbert of late.
Rams -6 @ Ravens
I’m not really a Tyler Huntley believer like a lot of other people are. Most of his production came against soft defenses down multiple scores in the fourth quarter.
Panthers +6.5 over Saints
The Saints’ offense has been downright anemic ever since Jameis Winston went down, and I don’t think they should be laying this many points against just about anybody. Carolina already beat New Orleans once this season, and that was when the Saints still had Winston.
Lions +7.5 over Seahawks
Speaking of teams that shouldn’t be laying this many points against just about anybody. I’ve been fading Russell Wilson all season, and I’m not going to stop now. He just doesn’t have it like he used to.
Computer picks
Bengals +4 over Chiefs, Bears -6.5 over Giants, Washington +4.5 over Eagles, Ravens +6 over Rams, Cowboys -6 over Cardinals
The computer and I are both on the Bengals over the Chiefs in arguably the slate’s most highly anticipated game. On the other hand, we’re on opposite sides of the Rams/Ravens game. Both the computer and I are coming off rough weeks, so hopefully we can get back on track here.
2021 season results
Pickswise Expert (36-44)
Pickswise Computer (45-34-1)
Don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every NFL game. You can also view all of our computer picks.
How are the pre-game win probabilities calculated?
The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities, which we use to run our event simulations.
Why do the win probabilities and predictions change over time?
The probabilities are dynamic in nature and get updated as new information becomes available. This includes but is not limited to team news, weather conditions, and moves in the betting market.
What does a ‘value bet’ mean?
A value bet is where we have identified that the probability of the event occurring is more likely than the listed sportsbook odds. Taking these bets gives you an increased chance of being a successful gambler.
How is the change in win probability calculated during a live game?
Live win probability is a statistical metric that projects the team’s likelihood of winning at any given point by simulating the remainder of the game. Based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation and the current state of the game, the model updates in real-time following every major event during the game.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
