MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Wednesday, September 23, including Astros vs Mariners
The final week in the 2026 Major League Baseball season continues with a more-than-full 16-game slate on Wednesday, September 23. It is headlined by an ESPN doubleheader featuring Guardians vs Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET and Astros vs Mariners at 10:10 PM ET, while also on the docket are Rays vs Yankees, Brewers vs Phillies, and Padres vs Dodgers. Here are my MLB best bets for today, and also make sure to check out our MLB picks for predictions through the rest of the 2026 season.
MLB Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (-105)
Chris Sale is taking the mound on Wednesday, and that is certainly good news for the home team. Sale comes in with a 14-9 record and a 2.18 ERA. The lefty’s innings may be somewhat limited as Atlanta looks ahead to Game 1 of its wild-card series on the upcoming horizon, but that may not matter much since this club boasts one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Braves have won each of Sale’s last three starts. Two of those victories have come by just a single run, but those results were against the Dodgers and Phillies.
Atlanta should have no trouble beating an opponent like Andrew Abbott and Cincinnati by multiple runs. Abbott is 6-11 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Two of his last four starts resulted in a 20-0 loss to Milwaukee and a 17-5 loss to the Cubs. The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 overall and nine of those 10 setbacks have come by multiple runs.
Read our full Reds vs Braves prediction for tonight's MLB game
MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML over Kansas City Royals (-112)
The White Sox have everything to play for, trailing the Guardians by just one game in the AL Central. It is a much different story for the Royals, who were eliminated from playoff contention long ago. Motivation alone should help Chicago prevail on Wednesday, but – if that isn’t enough – it also has an advantage on the mound. Erick Fedde has been fantastic of late. He has compiled a 1.80 ERA through three September appearances across 15.0 innings after concluding August with only two runs allowed in his last 13.2 innings. Fedde has faced Kansas City twice this year, allowing only three runs in a combined 10.0 innings.
Kansas City is going with Seth Lugo, who is 7-9 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Lugo is sporting a 5.40 ERA in September, this after giving up a ridiculous nine earned runs through 3.2 innings of work in his final August start – an 11-1 loss at Cleveland. The Royals have lost five straight; the Sox are on a three-game winning streak.
Find out our White Sox vs Royals prediction for today
MLB Best Bet: Seattle Mariners ML over Houston Astros (-126)
It is all tied up in the AL West with five games to go, as both Houston and Texas are 78-79 (yes, being one game under .500 is good enough to lead the division). Starting a rookie with only six MLB appearances (four starts) under his belt probably isn’t a great situation. Ethan Pecko has been fine so far (3.77 ERA), but how is he going to handle the biggest game of his career? Seattle, on the other hand, has no pressure on it and is handing the ball to a veteran in George Kirby. The right-hander is 2-0 against the Astros in 2026 and is sporting a 3.27 ERA at home. You know the Mariners will be eager to play the spoiler role against a division rival, plus they would like to hold off on mathematical elimination for as long as possible (they are five games out).
Get our Astros vs Mariners prediction for tonight's matchup on ESPN
