MLB Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros same game parlay (+475 odds) today 7/4: Yordan Alvarez hits Heasley hard

Houston Astros hitter Yordan Alvarez
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Mark Lammey

MLB · 1 month ago

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

It was an exciting weekend with plenty of walk-off wins, but it’s unlikely one will be needed in this matchup. The Royals were able to cap off their series with a win, but still have one of the league’s worst records. On the flip side, the Astros’ sweep of the Angels has given them the 2nd-most wins in the league. Although these teams are on opposite trajectories, that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to make this game profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Astros -1.5 (-120)

Under 9.5 total runs (-145)

Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-110)

Parlay odds: +475

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Astros -1.5 (-120)

It should come as no surprise that the Astros are heavy favorites this afternoon. They may not have Justin Verlander on the mound, but that will still always be the case with Houston at home against an inferior team. They’ve also been at home all weekend during their sweep of the Angels, while the Royals are coming in from Detroit. Transitioning from a series against a weak Tigers team to a hot Houston team will be quite the shock. However, it’s not as if the Royals haven’t faced the Astros already this season.

That series wasn’t long ago either; it was exactly a month ago. The Astros opened that series with a dominant 10-3 win, and finished it with a 3-run victory. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi didn’t pitch in that series, as he’s missed some time recently. However, that should not be much of a concern against a Royals lineup that has the 5th-lowest OPS and has scored the 4th-fewest runs in the league. The Astros having the league’s best bullpen coming in behind him provides confidence as well. On the flip side, that has been another major flaw for Kansas City. Their 4.61 bullpen ERA is the 3rd-worst in baseball. They’ll be coming in relief for starter Jon Heasley, who just allowed 7 runs in 3.2 innings in a loss against the Rangers in his last start. Now facing a different Texas team, the outcome should be the same.    

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros

Under 9.5 total runs (-145)

This total is listed rather high for a game involving arguably the most elite pitching staff in baseball facing one of the worst lineups. That’s the case with the Astros pitching against the Royals lineup. Not only is their 2.64 bullpen ERA the best in the league, their 2.89 overall team ERA is the best as well. They recently overtook the Yankees in that category, in part due to the way they beat New York recently. Houston has taken down that incredible lineup with scores of 3-1, 3-0, and 2-1, all within the last 10 days. Within that span was also a win against the high-powered Mets lineup by a score of 2-0. After seeing them do it again with a 4-2 win just yesterday, the Astros can cover the run line while also keeping this under the total.  

Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-110)

Just because this should be a low-scoring win for the Astros, doesn’t mean they won’t be producing at the plate. They should be doing the majority of the damage, and have several hitters that can lead the way. In terms of total bases, it’s been Yordan Alvarez not just leading his team, but is also tied with 7th-most in the league with 158. The entire top of their lineup hit this prop yesterday, including Alvarez with a double. However, he’s proved he can do it with both consistent contact and power. Alvarez also leads the team in hits with 76, while having the 2nd-most home runs in the league with 23. That’s given him a ridiculous .645 slugging percentage, proving he can hit this prop with a single swing, or with multiple throughout the game.    

Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+844 odds!)

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

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