MLB New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves same game parlay (+450 odds) 7/11: Braves stay hot at home

Atlanta Braves hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.
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Caleb Wilfinger

MLB · 1 month ago

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC.

The 2022 MLB season continues on Monday, and we have another exciting slate of games to watch. One of the matchups features the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, starting at 7:20 pm ET on FS1. I just hit a same game parlay on Saturday at +434 odds. Let’s make it 2 in 3 days!

We have come up with a 3-leg parlay, which would pay out at better than 4/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.

Atlanta Braves ML (-134)

No Runs First Inning (-155)

Mark Canha to record a hit (-165)

Parlay odds: +450

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Start time and how to watch

The Mets and Braves open their series with a start time of 7:20 pm ET on Monday. The game is airing exclusively on FS1. Let’s get into our same game parlay for this NL East matchup.

Braves ML (-134)

To start off our same game parlay, we are going with the Braves on the money line. To put it simply, the Braves are playing like the better team over the last month. Atlanta is now just 1.5 games back of the Mets in the NL East and is playing as well as any team in baseball. The Braves lineup has been buoyed by the return of Ronald Acuna Jr., while Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson continue to have excellent seasons. Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta, and the lefty has been dealing in recent months, allowing just 10 runs in his last 53.0 innings. Look for the Atlanta ace to set the tone against a familiar opponent.

The Mets are still playing decent ball, but their lineup has tailed off tremendously. New York has scored a combined 7 runs in its last 3 games, and that followed a couple of inconsistent series at the plate against the Rangers and Reds. The Mets couldn’t muster up much against Fried in their previous meeting this season, and I don’t see that changing this time. Back the Braves as a slight home favorite.

Check out our picks for every MLB side and total today

No Runs First Inning (-155)

For the second leg of our parlay, we are going with an NRFI. It goes without saying that Fried and Scherzer have been strong in 2022, particularly in the opening frame. In this pitchers’ duel, look for both to set the tone early. Scherzer has good career numbers against the top of the Braves lineup, and he’s a great first-inning pitcher regardless. The veteran has surrendered a first-inning run in just 1 of his last 8 outings. Fried has allowed a first-inning run in just 1 of his last 10 appearances.

With the Mets struggling at the plate and the Braves facing Scherzer for the first time this season, early runs should come at a premium. Fried is locked in at the moment and he acquitted himself well against the Mets earlier this season. Scherzer picked up right where he left off with 6.0 shutout innings in his first appearance back from injury on July 5. This game will likely come down to a matchup of the bullpens. I like backing the NRFI to add value to our parlay.

Mark Canha to record a hit (-165)

As a rule, including legs that may not correlate with each other always increases your odds in a same game parlay. However, I don’t think Mark Canha having success conflicts with a Braves victory. Canha has quietly been one of the more consistent hitters in the Mets lineup, even near the bottom of the order. With hits in 6 of his last 9 games, it’s more than fair to expect Canha to produce today. Furthermore, Canha is 2-of-3 lifetime against Fried, including a home run. The outfielder should get 4 plate appearances, giving us a good chance of cashing this leg at an implied probability of 62%.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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