Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 14-3-1 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Friday, so let’s get right into it.
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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-130)
This is a game between a pair of teams playing below their expectations this season. However, both pitchers should start strongly in this one. For the hosts, Luis Castillo is pitching at an ace level, and I wouldn’t expect that to change today. Castillo’s ERA sits at 1.82 and he has surrendered just 7 earned runs on the season. While the Astros offense is traditionally a power in the American League, Houston has struggled with inconsistency this season, particularly on the road. On the other side, the Mariners lineup is nothing to write home about, while Astros starter Cristian Javier has 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings and appears to be trending up heading into this matchup. We do have to eat some juice for this wager, but I think it’s a worthwhile trade-off in this spot.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-110)
These teams are expected to battle at the top of the NL West all season long, and we can expect both starting pitchers to sent the tone on Friday. The Dodgers are getting another excellent season from Clayton Kershaw, which is especially remarkable at this stage of his career. Kershaw’s 1.90 ERA and outstanding xWOBA, xERA, chase rate and walk rate back up what we’ve been seeing from the veteran left-hander over his first 6 starts.
The Dodgers offense has seemingly found life over the past week, including a 36-run outburst over the last 3 games against the Phillies. However, I’m expecting some regression for Los Angeles on the road against a much better opponent. Joe Musgrove’s ERA is a terrifying 10.80, but his xERA sits at 3.82, so positive regression is also expected on that front. He might get knocked around later in the contest, but I’ll back a quick start from Musgrove in this rivalry matchup.
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