MLB picks Sunday 8/28: YRFI & NRFI best bets today - Patrick Corbin's woes continue

Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin
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Caleb Wilfinger

MLB

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC.

With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.

Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free MLB picks on the side and total for every game.

There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-102)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

When Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals, you have to lean toward the YRFI. Corbin has been terrible in 2022 and his advanced metrics are even worse. The left-hander has a 6.81 ERA while ranking near the bottom of baseball for xERA through 121.2 innings. Corbin has especially struggled of late, allowing 32 runs on 51 hits in his last 27 innings. This has allowed his ERA to balloon over his last 7 starts. With no remedy in sight for Corbin’s struggles, the Reds should get on the board early in this one.

Even if Cincinnati doesn’t score off Corbin, Reds starter Nick Lodolo has been struggling himself this season. The Nationals’ offense isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination, but Lodolo has allowed 11 runs over his last 21.0 IP. With the Nationals hitting at an above-average clip at home this month, they should challenge the young Reds starter. I expect at least one run to be scored in the opening frame on Sunday.

Be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

While the series opener turned out to be an offensive showcase for the Dodgers, I still think this series is one that will be predicated on quality starting pitching. And while neither team’s ace is pitching on Sunday, these are still high-quality arms. In fact, Julio Urias has arguably been the Dodgers’ best pitcher this season. Posting a 2.36 ERA and WHIP of 0.96 for the campaign, the lefty is more than capable of dominating against a poor Marlins lineup. Urias has allowed a first-inning run in just 1 of his last 10 outings, as he typically gets off to hot starts. I don’t expect that to change against a team he pitched very well against in his most recent outing.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera has been outstanding for Miami. Cabrera holds a 1.41 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 38.1 IP this season. Through 7 starts, the Marlins phenom has allowed just 18 hits with a WOBA of .229. The top of the Dodgers’ lineup is perhaps the toughest in baseball, but Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman all haven’t faced Cabrera yet. This could be an advantage for the young pitcher, one that should lead to a clean first inning.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins

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