MLB picks Wednesday 9/21: YRFI & NRFI best bets today – We're on a 6-0 run!

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) walks off the field after the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Yankee Stadium.

One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, but one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.

There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like today, so let’s get right into it and see if we can extend our 6-0 winning run!

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-125)

Roansy Contreras has been a dream come true for NRFI bettors. Through 15 starts, Contreras has yet to allow a first-inning run. That’s right, he has a 0.00 ERA in the first inning. He has routinely gone 1-2-3 in the first frame as opponents own a .154 batting average and a .200 OBP against the young right-hander. Contreras has only gotten better as the season has gone on too, as his ERA has dropped from 3.78 to 2.43 from the first half of the season to the second, and since the all-star break, he has limited the opponent to a .189 batting average.

Luis Severino will make his first MLB start in over two months on Wednesday. The veteran was placed on the injured list with a lat strain, but he made three rehab starts and is now ready to return to the Yankees’ starting rotation. In his 16 starts this season, Severino has allowed only 4 first-inning runs while limiting the opponent to a .190 batting average and a .266 OBP. He was sharp in his few rehab starts, and I anticipate a quick start from Severino that includes holding a weak Pirates offense scoreless in the first inning. Pittsburgh had scored a first-inning run in only 1 of their last 9 games before Tuesday’s matchup, so as long as Aaron Judge doesn’t ruin this bet with one swing of the bat, there should be a scoreless first inning in the Bronx.

Lock in our Pirates vs Yankees same game parlay for tonight

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies: NRFI (+108)

A NRFI at Coors Field? It’s actually a smarter bet than it might look with German Marquez and Logan Webb on the mound. The game total is set above 10, which is inflated due to playing in Colorado, but the high game total means the odds for the NRFI will be better than usual. It might come as a surprise, but Marquez has pitched better in the first inning at home than on the road. At Coors Field, Marquez has not allowed a first-inning run in 11 of his 15 starts. But when he starts on the road, he has allowed a first-inning run in 6 of his 13 starts — a large difference. Jared Smith, our lead betting analyst, provided a more in-depth look at the NRFI in Colorado and how it’s close to ending in the positive this season.

From April to now, Logan Webb has been one of the most dominant first-inning pitchers this season. In 30 starts, he has a 3.30 ERA and has limited the opponent to a .191 batting average and a .252 OBP in the first frame. He has not allowed a first-inning run in 7 of his last 9 outings, and Webb has been one of the few pitchers that have had success in Coors Field since he is a ground ball pitcher. Over 57% of balls put in play against Webb have been on the ground, which is why the average launch angle against him is just 3.2 degrees. It’s always a nervous wager when betting a NRFI in Colorado, but at this value, it’s worth the sweaty palms.

Be sure to check out our full San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies predictions

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