Keith
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Happy Thursday! It’s been a long week of baseball and there is baseball on all day. There’s one player prop that I really like today, but before that, be sure to check out our full game previews for tonight’s matchups.
Let’s dive into my 5th player prop of the year as I hope to extend my prop record to 5-0.
Kyle Wright (ATL) over 6.5 Ks (+115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Kyle Wright has been a strikeout machine this season. He has struck out 39.4% of batters he has faced this season, which puts him in the 96th percentile, but Wright has also been excelling in every other category as well. He ranks in the 89th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, walk rate and so much more.
After recording 6 strikeouts in his first start, Wright recorded 9 in his next game, and then 11 in his most recent start. That makes getting him to record 7 strikeouts at plus odds seem like a steal as the oddsmakers may not have adjusted to Wright’s success. The fact that he ranks in the 82nd percentile in whiff rate and 93rd percentile in chase rate gives the over a lot of value.
Wright has thrown his curveball and fastball for 57.8% of pitches this season and those pitches have a combined average xBA (expected batting average) of .143. The young starter is trending upwards, and I’ll gladly take his over at plus odds.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves game.
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