MLB Playoffs NLCS San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 5 predictions: Same Game Parlay at +376 odds

Mark Lammey

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind. For Mark Lammey media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Padres ML (+122)

Under 7.5 total runs (-178)

Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (-150)

Parlay odds: +376

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

San Diego Padres ML (+122) over Philadelphia Phillies

Both the ALCS and NLCS have a chance to end today, but the Padres look set to keep this one alive. Unlike the Houston Astros absolutely dominating the New York Yankees in the AL, this series has been rather competitive. Despite the Phillies having the 3-1 series lead, it has not been a complete mismatch. We have a rematch of starting pitchers from Game 1 of this series, which was a close 2-0 Philly win. Both the Padres’ Yu Darvish and Phillies’ Zach Wheeler had great performances, and likely will again today.

However, San Diego can still come out on top in what looks set to be another low-scoring game. Darvish has been just a bit more consistent in terms of the season as a whole. He entered this postseason having held opponents scoreless in 3 of his last 6 starts, and he’s always reliable in terms of pitching deep into games. With both teams having been playing since the Wild Card round, that’s a huge benefit in this Game 5. There’s no doubt that Wheeler has looked strong as well, but the Phillies lost his start in the ALDS against the Atlanta Braves. He also had some slip-ups during the year with sub-5.0 inning performances against the Toronto Blue Jays twice and even the Texas Rangers. With the Padres already having the superior bullpen, even the slightest mistake can make the difference when runs are at a premium.

Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions

Under 7.5 total runs (-178)

In case the foreshadowing wasn’t strong enough, Game 5 should be a low-scoring one. That may come as a surprise given last night’s high-scoring game, but that was anticipated. We’ve correctly predicted the total in all 4 games thus far, and there was a good reason why we focused on hitting props last night. Regardless, today’s game should revert to the low-scoring variety with these aces on the mound.

Game 1 ended with just 2 total runs, and the same was the case when Darvish pitched against Philly earlier in the year. That was a 2-0 win in the Padres’ favor, which provides confidence in both our side and total predictions. Similarly, Wheeler’s start against San Diego during the regular season ended with just 3 total runs. Even if we don’t have that low-scoring of a Game 5, it should still end with 7 or fewer runs.

Yu Darvish 6+ strikeouts (-150)

Targeting Darvish’s strikeout prop has been profitable throughout the year, and was in Game 1 of this series as well. He rang up 7 Phillies batters, and there’s no reason to expect that to decrease. Philly’s Kyle Schwarber has power, but he also led the MLB with 200 strikeouts this season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins was in the top 10 himself, and his 14 strikeouts in this postseason are tied for the 2nd-most. Even without the extra help, Darvish is more than capable of hitting this prop. He had 9 strikeouts against the Phillies in the regular season and had double-digit strikeouts multiple times throughout the year. Philly has looked strong at home, but Darvish can slow things down in Game 5.

No read our Astros vs Yankees Same Game Parlay!