Kyle Lupas
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Sunday offers plenty of excitement throughout the day as all 30 teams are in action. We start the day in the Cleveland and close things out in San Diego. With no shortage of games to choose from, I’ve narrowed down the slate and picked my 3 favorite bets for a +768 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a closer look at this parlay and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Orioles -1.5 (+118)
Rays -1.5 (-114)
Marlins ML (+112)
Parlay Odds: +768
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Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over New York Mets (+118)
The New York Mets hauled off much of their talent prior to the trade deadline and the rebuild is full effect. That being said, New York was swept by the Royals and are on the verge of being swept by the Orioles this afternoon. Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Mets, and he’s been solid in his first 3 outings. Quintana is coming in off back-to-back quality outings, but the Orioles will be his toughest test yet. Baltimore has won 6 of their last 7 games and I’m projecting them to complete the sweep against Quintana and the Mets. Quintana is due for some regression considering his 4.75 xERA is over 1 run higher that his actual 3.57 ERA.
Not only is Quintana due for regression, but he’s outmatched with Kyle Bradish taking the ball for Baltimore. Through 20 starts, Bradish owns a 3.32 ERA, and a 2.44 ERA over his last 9 trips to the rubber. The Mets don’t pose much of a threat offensively, and they’ve only plated 8 runs over their last 4 games. Brett Baty was a player the Mets looked to hopefully build around but he’s yet to record a hit through 16 at-bats in August and is hitting .125 since July 8. This Mets team isn’t playing for anything at this point and the Orioles are a much better ballclub right now.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (-114)
The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers wrap up their series this afternoon in a rubber match after Detroit evened the series yesterday. The Rays are now 3.0 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East after posting an 8-10 record since the All-Star break and they’d love nothing more than to win this series. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball and should give Tampa Bay a huge edge with how well he’s pitched thus far. Through 12 starts, Glasnow boasts a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 2.08 ERA over his last 7 starts. Glasnow also has 4 consecutive quality outings with at least 7 strikeouts. His 34.5% strikeout rate ranks in the 96th percentile along with a whiff rate in the 98th percentile.
Meanwhile, Matt Manning of the Tigers owns a 4.53 ERA through 9 starts and has given up 11 earned runs across his previous 2 starts. Manning’s underlying metrics are some of the worst in baseball, and he’s actually due for some regression given his 5.05 xERA. His chase rate, xSLG, barrel rate, and whiff rate all rank in the bottom 10th percentile or worse. The Rays are much better than their record since the All-Star break and I’m expecting a game in line with their 8-0 win on Friday.
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Miami Marlins ML over Texas Rangers (+112)
The Texas Ranger are rolling and have now won 5 straight games with their 9-8 win over the Miami Marlins last night. However, if there’s one pitcher that can stop the Rangers in their tracks, it’s 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara may not be putting up the type of numbers he did last season, but when he’s right, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. Lately, Alcantara has been just as effective as he was last season, and across his last 7 starts, he owns a 2.45 ERA, including a complete game against the Rays and an 8.0-inning shutout against the Phillies in back-to-back starts.
The Marlins showed some life offensively last night after plating 8 runs, and I think they’re in for another big day at the plate today. They’ll go up against left-hander, Andrew Heaney who holds a 4.36 ERA, but a 5.18 ERA over his last 6 starts. Heaney’s 24.9% strikeout rate this season are way down from the 35.5% clip he posted last season and his 9.4% walk rate is a career-worst. I expect Alcantara to put the Marlins on his back and be the workhorse that he’s been throughout his career. I believe this game is much closer to a pick em’ and I see great value with the Marlins.
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