We’re halfway through the work week and have a full slate of games today to celebrate. I’ve identified 3 edges in today’s slate that make up this mega parlay, but also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup.
For now, let’s get into Wednesday’s MLB mega parlay.
Rangers -1.5 (+105)
Reds ML (+145)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
Parlay odds: +955
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (+105) over Detroit Tigers
The best offense in baseball against one of the worst pitchers in the game? Sign me up. The Rangers offense has been mashing in the last 2 weeks and average 7.1 runs per game in their last 10. They just put up 10 runs yesterday on 13 hits, and they get to face an even more hittable pitcher today. That pitcher is Joey Wentz, who has a 7.80 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP and has been even worse in the last month. During May, the lefty has a 9.80 ERA with a 2.02 WHIP in 5 starts. Wentz doesn’t strike many hitters out, gives up a lot of hard contact and gets barreled nearly 10% of the time. Those aren’t great qualities against a Texas offense that mashes left-handed pitching. Through the first 2 months of the season, the Rangers lineup has a 129 wRC+ which ranks 3rd in baseball. They also rank 2nd in on-base percentage, 5th in slugging percentage and 3rd in OPS against southpaws, so Wentz should be in a long day, but also a short one, on the mound.
The biggest problem with Wentz is his fastball. Opponents have a .405 batting average and a .616 slugging percentage against that pitch which is obviously concerning, but he’s also throwing it over 45% of the time. It’s his primary pitch and opponents are smashing it, and that should continue this afternoon since the Rangers rank 5th against fastballs this season. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are ripping the cover off the baseball right now, and today could turn into batting practice if Wentz doesn’t locate. Dane Dunning and the Texas bullpen should be able to hold Detroit to 2 runs or less, so I’m confident backing the Rangers by the run line.
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Cincinnati Reds ML (+145) over Boston Red Sox
The Reds entered the series opener as massive underdogs, and let’s just say they proved oddsmakers wrong. Cincinnati was up 8-0 before their bullpen finally allowed a run, but the first half of the game was pure dominance from Cincy. They had runners on constantly against Brayan Bello and were finally able to break through with a grand slam in the 7th inning. On Wednesday night, the Reds will take on the veteran James Paxton, who had a nice return to the big leagues but has struggled ever since. In 14.0 innings on the mound, the Big Maple has allowed 8 runs and 13 hits, including 4 home runs, along with 6 walks. Maybe he’s just shaking off the rust from not being in the Majors for 2 years, but until he limits extra-base hits, I’m not sold on Paxton just yet.
The hottest offense in baseball belongs to the Reds. In the last week, Cincinnati is hitting .353 with a .412 on-base percentage and .942 OPS – all rank 1st in their respective category. And after putting up 9 runs last night, it’s safe to say that their offense hasn’t cooled off yet and that the hitter-friendly conditions of Fenway Park have only amplified their offensive surge. They will also benefit from facing a left-handed pitcher because their offense ranks 6th in batting average and 9th in on-base percentage against southpaws. The bottom line is that this team deserves more respect, so I’ll back the red-hot Reds on Wednesday night.
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Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110) over Colorado Rockies
This is a spot that I look for every single say – the Rockies against a lefty. Colorado has been crushing right-handed pitching in the last few weeks, but they are the worst team in baseball against lefties, and I don’t mean that by an exaggeration. The Rockies rank 30th in wRC+ against southpaws at just a 68 which is far, far below the MLB average of 100. They also rank in the bottom 5 in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against lefties. You might be able to see where I’m going with this, but Colorado takes on a lefty on Wednesday. That southpaw will be Tommy Henry, a 2nd-year pitcher out of Michigan. The lefty excels at getting weak contact from his disappearing changeup, and that also gets a lot of hitters to chase out of the strike zone. He’s a great matchup for this Rockies lineup that can’t seem to hit lefties.
It will be a bullpen game for the Rockies, as Dinelson Lamet gets the start. That is bad news for the Rockies for several reasons. One, it’s Dinelson Lamet. The reliever has a 12.66 ERA and a 2.44 WHIP in 12 appearances this season. He has not pitched for the Rockies since May 3 and has been in the Minors making a few starts during that time. After Lamet goes 3-4 innings, the baton will be passed on to the next Rockies, and there lies the next problem. The Colorado bullpen not only has a 6.04 ERA in the last 14 days, but they’ve also pitched the 6th most innings in that time. The Diamondbacks should be able to score throughout the game, so they should be able to cover the run line fairly easily.
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