Ricky Dimon
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With the 2023 NFL season rapidly approaching, Pickswise has ramped up its football coverage with all kinds of analysis on the futures market. You can check out our NFL betting guide that has every single article.
This latest installment focuses on the NFL rushing leader. Who will finish the regular season with the most yards gained on the ground? Josh Jacobs brought home top honors in that department last year, but heading into the 2023 campaign it’s Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor topping the list of favorites.
Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to lead the NFL in rushing yards
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NFL rushing leader odds
Nick Chubb +450
Derrick Henry +650
Jonathan Taylor +650
Bijan Robinson +1000
Saquon Barkley +1500
Rhamondre Stevenson +1500
Josh Jacobs +1500
Tony Pollard +1600
Breece Hall +2000
Alexander Mattison +2500
Justin Fields +3000
Kenneth Walker III +3000
Miles Sanders +3000
Najee Harris +3000
Best bet: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (+650)
Without taking odds into account, I would probably pick Nick Chubb to lead the league in rushing since he no longer has to share carries with former Cleveland teammate Kareem Hunt. However, I’m not inclined to back Chubb as a +450 favorite. Instead, I’ll go shopping on Henry as a co-second choice at +650.
The question is: does Henry still have at least 1 more productive season left in the tank at 29 years old? I think the answer is yes. He has played at least 15 games in 6 of his 7 professional seasons, proving to be an extremely durable running back. Also encouraging is that the former Alabama star actually got better and better down the stretch in 2022. After going 4 contests in a row without gaining more than 87 yards, Henry exceeded the 100-yard mark in each of the last 4. He finished with 1.538 yards – good for second behind Jacobs. Tennessee is always among the most run-heavy teams in football, so Henry will once again have a ton of opportunities to churn out big chunks of yardage.
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Longshot worth a look: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (+3500)
McCaffrey finished eighth in the NFL in rushing last season despite getting traded in the middle of it, which led him to being eased into his primary RB role with the 49ers. The former Carolina Panther got no more than 8 carries in 2 of his first 4 games in San Francisco.
Well, McCaffrey is with the Niners from the start in 2023 and that will undoubtedly result in even more production. Elijah Mitchell was effective as RB1 in 2021 and he is still on the roster, but he predictably fazed out of the offense last year as McCaffrey found his footing down the stretch. Mitchell’s workload can be expected to further decrease this season. Although McCaffrey does a lot of his damage via the catch, San Francisco is a run-first team with significant questions at quarterback. At massive +3500 odds, I can’t entirely pass up one of the best players in football.
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