Germantas Kneita
NBA
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The Denver Nuggets will be visiting the Los Angeles Clippers tonight for the second time this season. They needed a late comeback to pull off a 103-100 win at the end of the last year and could be set for another tight encounter here. With the reigning MVP bound to take the floor once more, there is always the chance for excitement here.
You can find our full game previews for all the NBA matchups here, but for now let’s check out my same game parlay for tonight’s game.
Under 212.5 (-104)
Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (-110)
Ivica Zubac over 7.5 rebounds (-110)
Nikola Jokic under 1.5 made threes (-111)
Parlay odds: +997
Let’s break down the legs one by one:
Under 212.5 (+100)
When these teams met at the end of December, the game total hit only 203 points. Across their last 7 games, both teams rank 20th or slower in pace of play, each averaging fewer than 98 possessions per contest. In that same stretch, both teams rank 19th or worse in offensive efficiency, but rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency.
Bettors should expect a low-scoring affair between a pair of rosters missing numerous key pieces on the offensive end of the floor.
Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (-106)
The last time these sides met Nikola Jokic was able to record 22 rebounds. Since that performance he has hardly slowed down on the glass, managing 14 or more in 4 of his last 6 games. With the game looking like it will be a low scoring encounter, the opportunities should be there for him too. The Clippers are just 24th in the league in true shooting percentage over the last 10 and 27th in opponent rebounds per game in that stretch. With his matchup Ivica Zubac not able to stretch the floor, Jokic should spend plenty of time in the paint collecting defensive rebounds.
Ivica Zubac over 7.5 rebounds (-105)
With Jokic proving such a dominant presence in the paint, the Clippers will be relying on their own big man to counteract the threat of the MVP in the paint. Zubac exceeded his season average in minutes in the first meeting and is likely to be pushing closer to the 30-minute mark tonight too. In their last meeting he pulled down 11 rebounds and has gone on to record 8 or more in 3 of his last 4 games. Jokic has been far less effective stretching the floor recently and that should mean that Zubac is not forced out to the perimeter. Look for him to do his part for the Clippers tonight.
Nikola Jokic under 1.5 made threes (-113)
As mentioned, Jokic has been struggling from the 3-point line recently. Whilst his percentages have remained respectable, shooting 35.5% on the season, the volume has not been there for him. He has recorded multiple makes from beyond the arc just once in his last 10 games. In their last meeting against the Clippers, he has 1 make on 3 attempts in 38 minutes of action. Jokic has attempted more than 3 shots from beyond the arc twice in 5 games so far in January and is it tough to see him up his shot attempts here. The Clippers do a great job of forcing teams off the 3-point line, ranking 6th in opponent 3-pointers made and 3rd in opponent 3-point percentage. With teams shooting at just a 33 percent clip against them, the Clippers could be poised to shut Jokic down on the perimeter once more.
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