March Madness is finally here! After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament could be one of the best in recent memory. Will Kansas repeat? Can Purdue and Zach Edey finally break through? What upsets will bust brackets across the globe? That’s all for us to find out over the next few weeks of exciting college hoops action.
Let’s take a look at my outright winner best bets for March Madness 2023, but make sure you also check out our March Madness picks for every game throughout the NCAA tournament.
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Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Houston (+500)
Alabama (+800)
Purdue (+1200)
Kansas (+1200)
UCLA (+1200)
Gonzaga (+1500)
Arizona (+1500)
Marquette (+1500)
Texas (+2000)
UConn (+2500)
Even though there isn’t much value at this number, I have to stick to my guns when it comes to my national championship pick. Houston has been the nation’s most consistent team all season long and the Cougars should be getting their best player in Marcus Sasser back in the lineup by Round 2, at the latest. Kelvin Sampson’s team has a fairly stress-free path to the Elite 8 considering the strengths of the teams they’d be in line to play (Auburn/Iowa, Tennessee/San Diego State/Charleston, etc). The toughest potential matchup en route to the Final Four would come in the Elite 8 against Texas, but I’d still favor the Cougars experience, guard play and coaching in what would be their third straight Elite 8 appearance. And once they get to the Final Four, Houston would be favorites in its home city.
Due to their loss in the AAC title game on Sunday, the Cougars aren’t quite being appreciated as they should by the general public. This is still a Houston team that is deep, experienced and came up just short in each of the past 2 seasons, so I like this veteran group to get over the hump and win the national title.
At the turn of the new year, UConn was widely considered one of the best teams in the country by both metrics and “eye test” by many analysts. However, the Huskies had a terrible run of form at the beginning of conference play, which knocked them down in the minds of most college hoops fanatics. But over the last month, UConn has been playing at an elite level, culminating in a game against Marquette in the Big East semifinals that the Huskies lost, but was still graded as a win by ShotQuality.
Historically, this is a team that has the statistical profile of a championship team, as they rank 6th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency at KenPom. UConn also has the 7th-best chance to win the championship per Barttorvik and is the second-highest ranked team in the West Region. It’s no secret that the West is by far the strongest of the 4 regions, but the Huskies would be slight favorites in a matchup against Kansas in the Sweet 16, and they would probably be favored over UCLA or Gonzaga in a potential Elite 8 matchup. This UConn team is a solid investment at 25/1 odds, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Huskies cut down the nets.
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