NFL AFC East Predictions, Odds & Season Projections 2023: Can Aaron Rodgers and the Jets be contenders?

New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) celebrates his touchdown reception with teammates during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium.

The 2023 NFL season is rapidly approaching, but have no fear, there’s still plenty of time to check out our NFL futures guide which has our Super Bowl Champion picks, Conference winner picks, MVP best bets and so much more. But to get a better idea of each team, we’re going to break down every division and give a preview for each team, along with our best bet for the division in 2023. Before we get started, make sure to check out our NFC East and AFC West division previews. 

Next up is the AFC East, which is expected to be one of the better groups in football this season. Aaron Rodgers is the latest and greatest addition to the AFC East by joining the Jets this offseason, and he brought some of his own personnel from Green Bay. As for the Dolphins, they also stocked up on both sides of the ball while the Patriots could be a dark horse if they play their cards right. However, can anyone knock off Josh Allen and the Bills?

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Buffalo Bills (+120)

Yet again, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs came up short of making the Super Bowl. They were able to squeak by the Dolphins in the Wild Card round but got beat badly by the Bengals in the Divisional round. Heading into the 2023 season, the Bills might not look as dangerous as they did a year ago at this time. Buffalo lost the heart of their defense in Tremaine Edmunds and also saw Devin Singletary and Isaiah McKenzie leave in free agency. However, they still have the core of their offense together which is made up of Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox.

Their schedule is not as treacherous as some of the other teams’ in the AFC East, but the Bills will need to take care of their non-divisional games since the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots are all capable of putting up a fight. Buffalo remains one of the best teams in football and is once again expected to be in the running for the Lombardi Trophy, but one has to wonder, will Allen ever be able to get by Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes?

Make sure you also check out our Buffalo Bills team preview

New York Jets (+270)

It’s a new era in New York this season as the Jets are in win-now mode for the first time in years. Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets after 17 years with the Packers and has seemed to gel well with his receivers early in training camp. That also might be because several of Rodgers’ targets in Green Bay followed him to New York. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb followed their quarterback to the Big Apple to join an already solid wide receivers group composed of Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman Jr. And most recently, the Jets signed former-Viking Dalvin Cook to join Rodgers in the backfield. At only 28-years-old, Cook has a lot more left in the tank and should be a valuable addition to the Jets offense. With a young coach, experienced quarterback and energetic offense, can the Jets meet the sky-high expectations set for them this season?

Make sure you also check out our New York Jets team preview

Miami Dolphins (+300)

If it wasn’t for their schedule, I would think that the Dolphins could be a top-tier team this season. However, their schedule is a gauntlet. Miami has to play the Chargers, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs and Patriots twice before they can get to their bye in Week 10. If the Dolphins want a shot at making the playoffs, they are going to need to beat some good teams early on. That will require Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy, something that was difficult for him in 2022.

Tagovailoa seemed to become the poster child for the NFL’s mishandling of concussions which sparked a whole new debate on the rules and regulations for head injuries. Tua was unable to play in the Wild Card round against Buffalo which sealed Miami’s fate for the season, but the lefty quarterback has looked a lot stronger and healthier this preseason. There is a lot of potential with the Dolphins this season, and the beginning of their season will be crucial to their success.

Make sure you also check out our Miami Dolphins team preview

New England Patriots (+800)

After so many years on top of the AFC East during the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have found themselves lower on the totem pole in the division. New England finished with an 8-9 record in 2022, but there were several games in which the Patriots collapsed in final minutes (or even seconds in their Week 15 loss to the Raiders). Mac Jones had a mediocre season while their wide receiving corps remained one of the worst in football. Heading into the 2023 season, New England knew they needed to boost their offense.

The Pats added JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki in free agency and drafted Kayshon Boutte out of LSU, who might be one of the steals of the draft in my opinion. But here’s the bad news – their schedule is expected to be the hardest in the NFL this season. Prior to their Week 11 bye, the Patriots have to play the Eagles, Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Saints and Dolphins twice, among others. Although New England’s offense should be better, it’s hard to expect much with their strenuous schedule.

Make sure you also check out our New England Patriots team preview

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AFC East division predictions

Buffalo Bills (11-6)

 New York Jets (10-7)

Miami Dolphins (9-8)

New England Patriots (7-10)

AFC East Best Bet: Buffalo Bills To Win AFC East (+120)

Looking at Buffalo’s 2023 schedule, it certainly won’t be an easy 17 weeks. However, the Bills are lucky in the fact that both the Patriots and Dolphins are expected to have 2 of the hardest schedules in the league. If New England and Miami continue to get beat up by non-divisional teams, it will only make it easier for Buffalo to capture the division. And no offense to the Patriots, but this is a 3-man race for the AFC East this year. However, I’m even inclined to say it’s a 2-man race because I’m concerned about Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history and the Dolphins’ difficult start to the season. As for the Jets, there’s a lot of hype around what Aaron Rodgers can bring to the team, but I can’t see him bringing a division title to New York in his first season in the Big Apple. I’m backing the Bills to win the division for the 4th straight season.

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