We’re through 10 weeks of the 2023 college football season, and what a fall it’s been! We have certainly gotten eventful matchups every weekend, with plenty of upsets to keep fans entertained while also having enough chalk prevail to keep the top of the rankings loaded with traditional powerhouses.
Now it’s time to turn our attention to Week 11. The slate is very solid from top to bottom, headlined by a massive game in the in the SEC between Ole Miss and Georgia, plus a couple of important Pac-12 matchups. The opening lines were released at most sportsbooks on Sunday, so let’s take a look at these openers and give our first impressions.
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We have college football picks and NCAAF predictions for all the big games this season!
At this point, I’ve become a broken record about Arizona. Each week the Wildcats continue to cover games (winning outright as an underdog in most cases), and each week the betting market still discredits what they have accomplished. While Jedd Fisch’s team is finally garnering some respect, this line still should be double digits. After all, Oregon State was just laying nearly 2 touchdowns against this same Colorado team in Boulder, just one week after losing to Arizona. Even with the head-to-head result in mind, oddsmakers are still pricing the Wildcats as 4 points worse than the Beavers on a neutral field, which makes little sense to me. Arizona’s offense is humming against quality opposition (something that Colorado isn’t), while the Wildcats’ underrated defensive unit is also top 20 in stuff rate and EPA per rush. As long as Noah Fifita is under center and has these excellent wide receivers at his disposal, I’ll gladly back this Arizona team every week.
Washington State was a team that I was initially wrong about early in the season, but as Pac-12 play has gone on, I’ve found that the Cougars were actually the team I thought they were — if not even worse. After an embarrassing 10-7 loss at home against Stanford in Week 10, the Cougars are now a short road underdog to California. However, this is not an instance where I’m looking to buy low on the road underdog. There have been signs of life from Cal over the past few weeks, especially at home — where the Bears lost to USC by just one point and hung 40 on Oregon State in their previous home game. Meanwhile, this Washington State offense is lifeless, having averaged just 3 yards per play against the Cardinal. Let’s take the home favorite while it’s still under a field goal.
