A couple of Western Conference heavyweights will battle it out in Las Vegas this weekend for a place in the Emirates NBA Cup Final. ABC will have the Rockets vs Thunder tip-off at 8.30 pm ET, continue reading below to see my +433 odds Same Game Parlay.
Head over to our NBA Picks page for more predictions on the spread and total in the other NBA Emirates Cup game. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Even though the stakes are high here with a place in the final up for grabs, I feel like this line is a tad too low for these two teams. The first two meetings this season were dominated by good offense with 233 and 235 points scored respectively. This has been the trend for the most part whenever these two teams play, the last 10 meetings are averaging 232.1 points per game. Only two of Houston’s last 7 games have gone under the total, both were against the Golden State Warriors where they also failed to clear the 100 point mark. OKC will try and push the tempo here as that’s when they are at their best. SGA and co. have been on a tear scoring 118+ points in 4 straight games, including a 133 point night against Utah. Shai himself is on a streak of 3 consecutive 30+ point performances, another game like that plus a Thunder win would do wonders for his MVP case too. After seeing the Thunder knock down 20 threes in their last game against Dallas, there is no way this game is finishing under the total. I’ll take the points.
Don’t miss our full Rockets vs Thunder NBA Cup prediction
With a total of 7 players averaging double-figure points per game for Houston, it’s hard to tell from which position the biggest threat will come for opposing teams. Jabari Smith might not be the most flashy player on the roster, but he has certainly delivered over the past few weeks. In his last 10 games he has upped his three-point efficiency to 42.6%, which is a significant increase from his season average of 35.2%. He’s also cleared this line in 7 of 8 games, consistent shooting like that from their rotation players is one of the main reasons why the Rockets have been so good this year. Although OKC is very solid when it comes to defending the perimeter, Smith did make 3 threes in the most recent meeting against them played just 11 days ago. Look for him to maintain his solid shooting streak here.
The trade for Hartenstein in the offseason was a masterful move by general manager Sam Presti and the Thunder are thriving with him in the line-up. Hartenstein was mainly brought in to be a reserve to Chet Holmgren, but with Holmgren injuring his hip, the former Knick has had to step up in a starters role and so far it’s worked to perfection. He comfortably leads the team in rebounds per game, averaging 12.8 a night. He’s cleared this line in 3 straight games and in 7 of his 9 played for OKC. Going up against Alperen Sengun will be a challenge, however Hartenstein has the height and weight advantage. Plus, the Rockets aren’t exactly elite when it comes to keeping opposing teams off the glass, teams have averaged 53.9 boards per game against them which is the 6th worst mark in the NBA. Look for Hartenstein to have his way on the inside in this one.
