This Week's Hottest Trends: 5 best trends for betting NFL Week 6

Teddy Bridgewater
Photo of Andrew Ortenberg

Andrew Ortenberg

NFL· 1 month ago

Show Bio

I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

The first handful of weeks of the NFL season have been thrilling, and Week 6 has just as much potential. We will of course have free picks on the side and total for every game, which you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now we’re talking trends.

Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top 5 trends to help you make your Week 6 NFL wagers:

Road dogs now 30-19

One of the big betting stories of this NFL season has been the lack of home-field advantage. That’s why this is one of my favorite trends. It seems like some home favorites are just getting too much credit for home-field from oddsmakers. Crowd noise hasn’t been as big a factor as people expected after a year without fans in the stands, and road underdogs are now 30-19 ATS through 5 weeks.

That’s a cash rate north of 60%. I’m very interested to see if this one continues moving forward. This week, there are only 5 road underdogs. That could be a sign that oddsmakers are beginning to devalue home-field advantage. Nine of 14 road teams are favorites in Week 6, which isn’t something you’d see too often in years past.

Check out John Hyslop’s best underdog plays for Week 6

Broncos are 13-7 ATS off a loss under Vic Fangio, interim coaches don’t do too well

The NFL is all about responding to adversity, and Fangio has done a great job at it during his first stint as a head coach. The Broncos are 13-7 ATS off a loss under Fangio and they’re coming off a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Steelers. Denver did show a lot of fight at the end of their loss to Pittsburgh, nearly pulling off an epic comeback. That has to be a good sign entering this game.

Of course, all eyes will be on the Raiders to see how they respond to the abrupt resignation of Jon Gruden following his email scandal. And there’s another trend to note. The conventional wisdom is often that a team will come out and rally after their coach is fired or resigns. But that’s not always the case. In fact, interim coaches are just 16-23 ATS in their first games as head coaches since the 2000 season. With all that in mind, we’re rolling with Denver here.

Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games

Speaking of road teams having success, the Packers have been road warriors recently. Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 contests on the highway. They’ll look to keep that going in another hostile environment when they take on the Bears this weekend in a pivotal NFC North clash. Aaron Rodgers seems to thrive when sticking it to opposing fans. Another interesting trend for this game: Rodgers has dominated Chicago historically.

This game is always one of the biggest of the year for both teams, and Rodgers is 19-7 ATS against the Bears since taking over as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. Chicago is hoping that Justin Fields can start to reverse their fortunes against their longtime division rival. We don’t think that’ll be happening this week.

The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9

This one doesn’t have much to do with circumstances, the Chargers have just been on fire covering numbers lately. Los Angeles started to turn things on in the last month of last season, and if you’d been blindly betting them ever since you’d have made a ton of money. Brandon Staley seems to have finally established a winning culture with the Chargers, and they’ve been really impressive this season.

Los Angeles has already passed a couple of tough tests against the Chiefs and Browns, and they’ll have another one here in Week 6 as they take on the Ravens. Baltimore is coming off a thrilling overtime comeback victory over the Colts on Monday Night Football. In addition to the Chargers covering left and right against everybody, might the short week harm the Ravens here? We think so.

Giants are 0-15 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams traveling at least 1,500 miles

I found this one very interesting. It’s a common NFL betting sentiment that traveling long distances is a disadvantage. Especially for teams traveling multiple timezones, which can potentially affect their body clocks and circadian rhythm. But this trend disputes that, especially as far as the Giants are concerned. New York has been awful at covering the spread against teams they have a purported travel advantage over. In fact, it seems like west coast teams have thrived playing them in early kickoffs.

The Giants have hosted only one team from the west this season, and that was the Broncos. They lost that game 27-13, and didn’t come close to covering. Of course, this trend is highly relevant with the Giants hosting the Rams in Week 6. Los Angeles played in Seattle last week, so they’re coming from all the way across the country. We think the Rams will keep this eye-popping trend going.

Make sure you check out Pickswise Playbook, our new weekly NFL betting show with Chris Rose, Ross Tucker and Jared Smith as they look to make your next bet better! Out every Thursday

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.

See All


Bet $10, Win $200 If Your Team Covers +40 Points!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $10+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team covers +40 points

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Bet $20, Get $200 - Regardless of Outcome!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+.

Bet $20 on any game in any sport!

As soon as your game is over, you'll receive a $200 bonus - no matter whether your initial bet won or lost!

Caesars Sportsbook


Get a $1,001 Free Bet + A FREE NBA JERSEY!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Win or lose, you'll receive a free bet matching your initial stake - up to $1,001! You'll also be given a gift card for a FREE NBA JERSEY!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF



Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook


Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight


Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.



Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing


$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.



Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.