Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 273 takes place on Saturday at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. This card will feature two title fights — one in the featherweight division and one in the bantamweight division.
Here is our favorite 3-fight parlay for UFC 273 that has odds of +270. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 273 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Khamzat Chimaev win by finish over Gilbert Burns (-190)
Khamzat Chimaev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Li Jingliang by submission back in October of 2021. Chimaev is averaging 8.68 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 77%. He is absorbing 0.08 strikes and has a striking defense of 75%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 4.65 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 5.8 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 66% and has not had to defend a takedown in the UFC.
Chimaev is the clear favorite, so backing his money line is likely unwise here. He continues to dominate his UFC opponents, winning all 4 fights by finish and now has a total of 10 wins by finish in his career. Gilbert Burns will almost certainly be overmatched here, so backing Chimaev to win by finish will be the play.
Ian Garry vs Darian Weeks: Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Ian Garry comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. Garry is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 4.41 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. He has not shown much grappling ability yet, but does defend takedowns 100% of the time.
Darian Weeks comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-1. Weeks is averaging 7.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 7.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 4.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and he has not had to defend a takedown yet in the UFC.
Both guys have a very high finish rate with Weeks having won all 5 of his fights by finish and Garry having won 6 of his 8 career fights by finish. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Mike Malott ML over Mickey Gall (-170)
Mike Malott comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-1-1. Malott is averaging 4.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35%. He is absorbing 4.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has also been good so far, averaging 1.92 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Malott’s takedown accuracy is 33% and he has not been able to defend a takedown so far.
Malott is looking promising so far, whereas Mickey Gall is very inconsistent. Gall has lost 4 of his last 8 UFC fights, so backing Malott looks to be worth a play.
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